05/05/2023 Live Update

[Cobra]

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The job data must be not too much above expectation so no more hike. Boy, the logic of the market is... I see TLT is falling which means yield up (more hike) and gold is down (so again more hike as USD strengthening). Or maybe the market's focus is shifting toward, hey, good job data, no more recession so up! But wait, no more recession means no QE, why good news?

Anyway, I see 3 push down (red arrow) so indeed we should be close to a bottom of some kind, just the pattern still looks missing at least a higher low to be complete.

[Al_Dente]

Apple beats.
... Mac and iPad sales fell short of estimates.
4% dividend hike.
Apple will increase its buyback program by $90 billion.

Bloomberg:
Revenue: $94.8 billion versus $92.6 billion expected
Adj. EPS: $1.52 versus $1.43 expected
iPhone: $51.3 billion versus $48.9 billion expected
Services: $20.9 billion versus $21.1 billion expected
Mac: $7.1 billion versus $7.7 billion expected
iPad: $6.6 billion versus $6.7 billion expected
Wearables: ?? versus $8.5 billion expected

[Al_Dente]

8:30 Non-farm payrolls [job growth stronger-than-expected]
1:00 PM Fed's Bullard speaks
3:00 PM Consumer Credit

[Al_Dente]

- Fed Statement: "US banking system is sound."
- US Treasury: "US banking system is on a solid foundation."
- FDIC: "US banking system remains resilient."

5/4/23 .... Meanwhile, the FDIC needs money to help with all the bailouts.
They gifted JPM and others, letting them buy deposits for near nothing....NOW they'll get 'em:
*FDIC POISED TO RELEASE PLAN NEXT WEEK TO REFILL INSURANCE FUND
*SMALLER BANKS WITH LESS THAN $10 BILLION IN ASSETS AVOID FEE
*BIG BANKS TO PAY MORE TO REFILL INSURANCE FUND UNDER FDIC PLAN

"REFILL INSURANCE FUND" is a euphemism for "we fucking need cash"

[Serenity]

8:30 Non-farm payrolls [job growth stronger-than-expected]
1:00 PM Fed's Bullard speaks
3:00 PM Consumer Credit

IBM cut 7000 jobs and using AIs instead. Maybe they are counting robots as new employess in data.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

We are now at 1929 levels on outflow of bank deposits.
Lets hear it for central planning!

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:13 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/05 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

I see an early sign of an uptrend day.

[Serenity]

This is from the author of "sell in May and Go away " put in his tweet.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch
@AlmanacTrader
On May 3rd.
"We don’t just Sell in May and go away, we reposition in May. Sell some things, cut losers, tighten up stops, limit new longs and move into bonds and sectors that do well in the Worst Six Months."

[te_fern]

It reacted to this trend line...

[Cobra]

Uptrend day not confirmed yet, but the pullback probably will be bought which if can make a new day high with a good looking bull bar in the next couple of bars then it still could be an uptrend day.

[te_fern]

Back testing the trendline. We'll see if the bulls have enough to push through...

[jademann]

Hard to be bullish when rates are this high and banks are dropping like flies

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:15 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/05 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

It's the very first test of the EMA20 today, so could attract some buyers. Still some chances to confirm an uptrend day if bulls can make a new day high asap.

[Serenity]

I am bearish as many of you are about economy and as well as I am worried about AI to take over jobs in future when I heard IBM got rid of 7000 employees.

[te_fern]

Another rally back to the trendline....

[Serenity]

We are in the middle of the road right now between GOLD and SPY. One goes south, the other goes North. NUGT ( Bull ETf of GOLD)and SPXL ( Bull Etf of SPY)are on my watch list now.

[te_fern]

Almost fell to the blue MA line, now a strong bounce, but is it enough to break the down trend line.....

[te_fern]

Needs to sustain the break, so it's not a bull trap....