Cobra's Market View

Institutional Accumulation and Distribution from stocktiming. Again this chart has no predictive value, I post here every week simply become some readers are insisting. The only thing worth noticing is the distribution level is very close to the record low.

AAII and II.

Smart money update delayed to the next Monday due to US holiday, so the smart money chart below still is the old one, which favors bears.

I think the Institutional Accumulation and Distribution chart has good predictive value for mid term and longer term except very short term.
I'v noticed before the Jun 21 strong down swing, this chart showed very bullish Accumulation and Distribution ratio, then mkt suddenly
crashed. I believe this made you upset. But, the up swing after Jun 26 showed extreamly strong monentent, this has some thing to do with the very bullish Accumulation and Distribution ratio before Jun 21. Now, the bullishness ratio is resuming. Can not ignore it.

Am I the only one who can't wait for Cobra to open up Weekend Discussions? Great site Cobra, great information, great collection of contributors whom I continue to learn from. Thank you!

XLE Daily: Looks bearish to me. Possible false upside breakout of bearish flag and above 61.8% fib level only to touch the trendline and provide a 4th lower high since February peak. ChiOsc isn't extreme but certainly on the high side. Full STO has crossed negatively. Notice channel on RSI wasn't broken. If we repeat the past two summers energy likely to continue lower.

XLE 60 min: Possible H&S with target around $63.

ClarkW wrote:Am I the only one who can't wait for Cobra to open up Weekend Discussions? Great site Cobra, great information, great collection of contributors whom I continue to learn from. Thank you!

clark
u are not the only one
ps DID YOU VOTE FOR COBRA today AND tomorrow
he needs some stimulus

Al_Dente wrote:

ClarkW wrote:Am I the only one who can't wait for Cobra to open up Weekend Discussions? Great site Cobra, great information, great collection of contributors whom I continue to learn from. Thank you!

clark
u are not the only one
ps DID YOU VOTE FOR COBRA today AND tomorrow
he needs some stimulus

I didn't think so Thanks for reminder, vote Mon-Fri but forget on the weekends!

Late yesterday, for whatever reason(s), options folks went honey-badger on long index calls ($CPCI).
This indicator has only given seven sell signals in the past 15 months, and all were good signals.
Sometimes it predicted a shallow pullback, sometimes deep.
The challenge (for me) is to wait patiently for the MA purple line to cross BELOW the red signal line (as it could still get even more extreme).
Last time, I waited four+ days for the signal to fire properly…. it can happen any day…
[Note this is INVERTED $CPCI]

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... s?tw_p=twt. Something to ponder.

Al_Dente wrote:Late yesterday, for whatever reason(s), options folks went honey-badger on long index calls ($CPCI).
This indicator has only given seven sell signals in the past 15 months, and all were good signals.
Sometimes it predicted a shallow pullback, sometimes deep.
The challenge (for me) is to wait patiently for the MA purple line to cross BELOW the red signal line (as it could still get even more extreme).
Last time, I waited four+ days for the signal to fire properly…. it can happen any day…
[Note this is INVERTED $CPCI]

77wkndcpci.png

A-hole messing with your grove late yesterday. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... TopStories. More wolf cries to interfere with your trading day. Also see Zero-hedge for more. This guy is supposedly the mouth piece for the Fed, but from what I have seen from some of QE intervention timeline charts you had last week or so, QE3 would have little impact.

THANKS XFRADNEX
btw: Why not post yr closing elder chart here, as many folks don’t see the daily after-hours posts.
ps: how’s the foot?
elevate yr ankle
take some good drugs
brush yr teeth
get some rest

http://screencast.com/t/burobk49

[OFF TOPIC]
Silicon Valley and San Francisco’s “hacker hostels”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/06/techn ... 6_20120707

Al_Dente wrote:THANKS XFRADNEX
btw: Why not post yr closing elder chart here, as many folks don’t see the daily after-hours posts.
ps: how’s the foot?
elevate yr ankle
take some good drugs
brush yr teeth
get some rest

http://screencast.com/t/burobk49

Toothpaste counteracts Obama care. I amgood. I am working on a new graph for World elders. (latest elders posted late yesterday).

The ratios of SPY-to-BONDS and SPY-to-DOLLAR show that when the ratios are under their 200sma (red boxes), it roughly confirms a SPY downturn.
Yesterday only $USD closed on its 200ma, so confirmation of a further downturn (for intermediate-term folks) is still premature at the moment.

Silver at intersection, shall we go to the beach ?

SHORT TERM …$USD needs to break above resistance ~83.50, then bears are off to the races. INTERMEDIATE TERM… target for bears would be triple top near ~89 Yesterday’s dollar COT http://www.dailymarkets.com/commitment-of-traders/
Underneath the chart > “select a different instrument” > US dollar

“I believe totally in a Capitalist System, I only wish that someone would try it.” [Frank Lloyd Wright, Architect]

Al_Dente wrote:SHORT TERM …$USD needs to break above resistance ~83.50, then bears are off to the races.

wknddollar.png

INTERMEDIATE TERM… target for bears would be triple top near ~89

77wknddollar2.png

Yesterday’s dollar COT http://www.dailymarkets.com/commitment-of-traders/
Underneath the chart > “select a different instrument” > US dollar

“I believe totally in a Capitalist System, I only wish that someone would try it.” [Frank Lloyd Wright, Architect]

Need the Germans to reject bailouts for anything to happen quickly. Interesting article: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... louts.html.

Germany is just like America, the Gov't is in charge and doing what they want over the advice of some of their most knowledgable citizens. http://rt.com/business/news/angela-merk ... union-608/

Cobra wrote:Institutional Accumulation and Distribution from stocktiming. Again this chart has no predictive value, I post here every week simply become some readers are insisting. The only thing worth noticing is the distribution level is very close to the record low.

McClellan hit 3 year record.

Is the combination here saying no one thinks it can go lower?