02/03/2024 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 4 weeks in a row, the next week has 67% chances to close up, 83% chances to make a higher high.

So MORE UP!

[BullBear52x]

If all else failed, war is the answer? something is totally not right on Friday trading. Hmmm

[Cobra]

If all else failed, war is the answer? something is totally not right on Friday trading. Hmmm

Maybe it's because of the war the market has been up and up like no tomorrow. I've never seen the market this crazy, up based on nothing.

[Cobra]

Last Friday made a record: $SPY up 1%+ while $NYAD had 1000+ more decliners than advancers (i.e. most stocks were down!).

This never happened before.

Again this market is crazy. I'll give bulls a couple of more crazy weeks as we shall never ever underestimate the power of the bull side (aka how greedy people can be).

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department" Market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent. As we are all witnessed, A negative D can be a long stay until we are all forget that it's there. today is those days.
Patience, React, Don't predict.
Momentum is now weakening, it will not confirm the start of consolidation until the second day of negative $NYMO. Monday trade will tell if green zone will turn into red zone.

This is fearful market, but market seems to ignore all of this.

Market is so bullish, red $NYSI and red $NYMO is now a buying opportunity, if it works why stop?

ONLY price pays.....Swing setup: dips will be bought.

Intraday: Friday closed with a negative price action, I would expect a weak trade into Monday. a gap up will kill the call. again, this can change on a dime. same playbook, market is random each day in my view. Trade well, Peace!

[BullBear52x]

Last Friday made a record: $SPY up 1%+ while $NYAD had 1000+ more decliners than advancers (i.e. most stocks were down!).

This never happened before.

Again this market is crazy. I'll give bulls a couple of more crazy weeks as we shall never ever underestimate the power of the bull side (aka how greedy people can be).

If it only take 3 to 4 stocks to move 500 company index, something is wrong with the math. 2+2 = 5

[tsf]

Thank you, Cobra and BB52x. Your analyses have been superb.

Here's a good article from Art Hill:
https://stockcharts.com/articles/arthur ... r-305.html

The S&P 500 is weighted by market cap with the top ten stocks accounting for 32% of the index and the top 50 stocks accounting for 57.34%. This market-cap weighting means divergences in breadth do not always lead to weakness in the index. However, we are also entering a seasonally weak period. Notice that we saw bearish divergences from December 2022 to February 2023 and the index fell around 9% from February 2nd to March 13th, 2023 (yellow shading). Corrections are part of the process.

[JFR]

SPY daily.

How many indicators do we need?

There are 10 on this chart, if I double count the MACD and its Histogram, which I do.

There are others I use and believe in, mostly on NinjaTrader: Slope. Squeeze, Trendlines, Pivots, Support and Resistance, Open-Close-High-Low lines. Elder Impulse.

They all work, in different ways. Turns. Momentum. Fades. Targets. Trends. Impulse. Pullbacks. Et cetera.

Some traders like a lean, clean chart. I vary it a bit for myself. But I have seen guys with so much clutter, it just looks like a mess on the chart. We get first rate stuff on this website.

I am still working through migrating from NinjaTrader 7 to 8. Lots of fun. Not. Ha ha.

On the chart ...

Sto and MACD have topped out, not useful to me at this time, aside from watching for the pullback or turn down. Histogram is not doing much, barely in the positive zone, upwards.

Volume is good, above average.

EMAs 20, 50 and 100 all up, and in the correct order. These are key for trend, which for me is bullish.

Bollinger is up, and pushing the outside of the envelope, very bullish.

The candlesticks show some strong bulls, a good bounce after the pullback, and a breakout. And two clear touches down to the EMA 20 since November. The pullback on January 31 almost reached the EMA 20.

The Volume by Price shows S and R levels.

For this trader my bias is with the bulls. On a day trade basis.

I have not done my weekend homework yet, looking for swing trades on stocks and ETFs, which, if any, would be long. More likely just being ready for day trades on the usual suspects.

Thanks to Cobra, the posters, and the readers. Great website.

Have a good weekend.