Cobra's Market View

I couldn't wait until tomorrow to show you this, it's really funny. The following screenshot is from Bespoke weekend report.

Hmm, smart money covered a lot.

not sure if today's up dramatically changed the institutional accumulation and distribution chart. Also the liquidity chart may be dramatically change to. Both chart are from StockTiming.

Retailers are very bearish, so this AAII chart should mean the market would be up huge.

Cobra, Draghi's words or the article in the WSJ are no coincidence. I'm not saying that it's a conspiracy, but I've been receiving all kinds of bullish comments from the big brokers lately. There must be some kind of mutual understanding between brokers/banks/central banks that low volume July/August are an ideal set-up to push the market higher.

Holidays begin Saturday - I'll be gone for two weeks, bye guys

Cobra: U get my “vote” today AND tomorrow

“Zuckerberg Fortune Falls $1.6B as Facebook Shares Drop”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-2 ... -drop.html

embedded whale link: http://topics.bloomberg.com/bloomberg-b ... res-index/



“A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you’re talking about real money.”
[Attributed to Senator Everett Dirkson, circa 1960]

We all saw the banks quietly creeping up starting Tuesday (on the Relative Strength chart), so I checked the ETF weightings again.
On 4/14/12 I posted weighting for NYC, the NYSE proxy (NYSE is the source of all our “internals”), showing that the financials were 21% of NYC/NYSE,
and oil and gas 15%, and etc.
This link (the most current I have) shows financials now at 17%.
Scroll down to the sector breakdown: http://etfdb.com/etf/NYC/holdings/

Further, on 4/14 the SPY weighting was: tech 21%, financials 15%, etc, and AAPL was almost 5% of SPY.
Tech is now 18.3%, financials are 12.9% of SPY, and AAPL is 4.54%. The only bank in the SPY top ten is GE (GE Capital) at #6.
http://etfdb.com/etf/SPY/holdings/

IWM on 4/14 was weighted 23% financials… here her weighting is 13.09% financials !!
http://etfdb.com/etf/IWM/holdings/

And the breakdown for Cobra’s RSP shows what an “equal weighted” (not capitalization weighted) portfolio looks like these days:
http://etfdb.com/etf/RSP/holdings/

So it appears that the ETFs are not quite as overweight in banks as they were a few months ago.
(For reference: since that date, 4/14/12, SPY is up about +1.6%, XLF is down -1.9%, IWM is up +0.2%, AAPL is down -3.3%, and QQQ down -1.7% )
Any comments?

This week felt like the market was looking for a reason to rally. But Apple and Facebook both disappointed so they had to search for another reason and latched onto Draghi.

The AAII numbers were setup for a rally but the PE ratios on the Dow and S&P 500 rose last week despite the rise in the markets.

Here are some interesting charts from overseas.

Swiss bond yields

http://www.six-swiss-exchange.com/servi ... es_en.html

German yield curve

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates- ... s/germany/

Negative yields. That is right.

I don't like this rally at all. Corporate earnings and economic data has been weak. We had three straight months of declines in retail sales which is a 100% predictor for a recession yet prices are near their highs. Hussman may have been right this week when he said that QE3 is already priced into the market.

[quote="Cobra"]I couldn't wait until tomorrow to show you this, it's really funny. The following screenshot is from Bespoke weekend report.

Seems no QE3 then, market already up! Iam dissappointed

For those of u contemplating trading the equity vixies here, it is worth re-posting the Jarbo link on “reverse split” predictions, for leisurely weekend reading. Let’s not be caught by surprise next time by any costly vixie shenanigans. Vixies are not recommended for newbies, nor for anyone who prefers to hold longer than ONE DAY (as clearly stated in the vixie prospectuses at least a dozen times).
http://sixfigureinvesting.com/blog/

Also, the old keizai links to the IV “Indicative Value” (which is like NAV “Net Asset Value” or “real value” using the words “real” and “value” VERY loosely) still work just fine. This one for VXX: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EVXX-IV
And many of you recall that when TVIX last imploded, this kezai link worked as an EXCELLENT guide: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETVIX-IV
And this one is XIV which is the bull-spy approximation (the others are bear-spy expectations): http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Exiv-iv&ql=1
[many thanks to jarbo and keizai and others who have saved us $$$$ by posting on this board].

Final note: the vixies are designed to track VIX FUTURES; they are NOT structured to track our $VIX options index. If u happen to be inside a vixie who has a problem, you don’t walk, you RUN to the exit like your pants are on fire, and you don’t stop to ask questions until you are confirmed OUT…

End of vixie rant.

Hello weekend warriors,

Short term is over bought, here's something from my corner.

[Not on this chart:] That downtrend channel line drawn from the April 1-ish top is very strong resistance that EVERYONE on the planet is eyeing.
Blasting above that might trigger a tremendous amount of stops and maybe a flood of more buying, at least until Ben opens his pie-hole and disappoints, as he usually does, because he will only say eleven words about easing while everyone is expecting him to say eighteen words… or whatever…

But it appears that spy and the dow are the only (?) indices that broke out to higher July highs, the rest lag.
So bulls need to see the smalls and Qs and banks catch up, otherwise…….trouble ahead…..

Germans say ECB stuff was just rumor. From ZeroHedge.

MrMiyagi wrote:Germans say ECB stuff was just rumor. From ZeroHedge.

it is just a bluff ... if they can save PIIGS they have already done it year be4 ... just like bear sterns & Lehman ... yes they can save one but not another ...

I don't know how many are feeling bullish but the charts support a lot of upside potential. We broke a divergence on SPY which has been very bullish in my experience. Don't know what to make of it. Just play the tape day to day till we are clearly over the spring highs. Here is the bullish count.

[quote="Cobra"]Retailers are very bearish, so this AAII chart should mean the market would be up huge.
Cobra,

If SPY has a pull back of some type on Monday, would the 5 SMA be a reasonable expectation or would it not even be reached? Thanks for clarifying!

EFA

It is do or die for the dollar bulls

Dollar bearish scenario (wave 5 ended and we are in wave 1) Bullish scenario Joe gamma can you please explain me what is saying this chart? You look like an expert P&F charts are like sudoku to me Why it is DO or DIE? Because other dollars are on critical support and will take USD with them

I found interesting how nicely are indices copying MR.Bradley siderograph, he nailed the major top but on other dates he used probably bad calendar (maybe mayan)...or will he nail the minor top as well? I highlighted tops and bottoms from sideograph (in the blue circles) and his dates(in the red)

If MR.Bradley is right this should be the way
One note to the C wave:
"C waves are usually devastating in their destruction. They are third waves and have most of the properties of third waves. It is during these inclines that there is virtually no place to hide except cash. The illusions held throughout waves A and B tend to evaporate and greed takes over. C waves are persistent and broad. Advancing C waves within upward corrections in larger bear markets are dynamic and can be mistaken for the start of a new upswing, especially since they unfold in five waves."

Are we repeating august pattern? Last sell off is still missing IMO they will not make intervention with indices at highs, ECB announcement was just the message to big guys don´t panic and be ready we will "then" do what you want