Cobra's Market View

Harapa wrote:

KeiZai wrote:Why I am paying so much attention to currencies? Because they say it better what is really going on

KeiZai, my back testing shows that buying or selling SPY or IWM purely on the momentum of AUDJPY and USDCAD can be very profitable. Have you looked at correlation of various asset classes with AUD/JPY pair?

Yes you are absolutely right, actually I "grew up" on trading currency pairs so it is my essential tool for trading indexes, commodities etc...I am using rather NZD/JPY -also being used by the big hedge funds but this pair is less on the ´retail´ eyes, I am looking mainly for divergence between these two pairs, if AUD/JPY made new high/low but NZD/JPY not confirmed it - then it is problem...I am using also AUD/USD and NZD/USD and so far this strategy have very high winning rate - very close to 100% I can make charts next weekend where you will see how it works

Thanks MR.Bachnut for posts, always like to read your insight same as from other boardies...Cobra´s board is definitely BEST-OF

here is weekly smemi to broad tech, look like they lead to upside , and there is still room to trade higher...

But, the SMH-Comp chart as 3 line break,looks like there is usually time for correction s/t when the ult osc is overbot...

KeiZai wrote: ...I am using rather NZD/JPY -also being used by the big hedge funds but this pair is less on the ´retail´ eyes, I am looking mainly for divergence between these two pairs, if AUD/JPY made new high/low but NZD/JPY not confirmed it - then it is problem...I am using also AUD/USD and NZD/USD and so far this strategy have very high winning rate - very close to 100% I can make charts next weekend where you will see how it works

.
I would love to see these charts. I use a collection of moving averages and their RSI, CCI, BB Squeeze etc. to spot the trend. In my hands 1hr generates best signals. Here are the STATs of AUDJPY back testing to March 2007 and buying or selling SPY. Combining signals using other currency pairs listed on my momentum block and acting when they all and SPY agree further improves the performance of this strategy.

Dr. AL, I wonder if this setup may serve your purpose as this can be used in lower time frames. Here is, for example, performance of a trading setup for IWM using trend in RVX (using 5 min data) since 2/8/2012. I can share the detailes of this strategy if you like , just PM me.

KeiZai wrote:Thanks boardies for great charts this weekend


update of AUD/USD plan

AUD99.png

USD/CAD is setting up for take off

CAD.png

Why I am paying so much attention to currencies? Because they say it better what is really going on

Correlation2.png

Correlation between CAD and SPX

CDW.png

Dollar update (looks constructive to me, so far nothing extra bearish)

Dollar.png

KieZai,
Good table. I assume the best combos would have a history of showing some type of laging between one value and the other. Does the AUD and DIA have good lag/lead stats? X

Daily Elders. 12 of 15 greens in world. Volume dropped. The market was very strong on friday (throughout the day). It wanted to go up, but couldn't because of it was hitting historical (Close to High) max stats. I think it will try for more up tomorrow as a follow through, but at the end of the day it will only be up a little bit (unless Merkel has something to say). What big wig is going to open their big mouth tomorrow and gum up the works? This is a perfect time for someone to pop some bad news, after that friday pop up.

UK ready to pop some bad news: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... still.html.

Greece inspectors will be back in Sept. Did not change grease this time See http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... rdict.html

Italy going for gold http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... bling.html.

Jens Voigt says the Euro is dead as the Dodo. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt ... -2012.html. I wonder what Lance Armstrong thinks.

Free Press in Spain at risk. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/au ... sfeed=true. Anyway we are still looking for positive confirmation from Spain's Mariano Rajoy on Spain taking loans from the ECB. Wait it says he is on vacation.http://translate.google.com/translate?h ... JUBEO4BMAw Merkel and Draghi were on vacation when they made their statements that moved the market, so be on the look out.

Expectations of short term bond buying by the ECB. Aug 4. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-0 ... ation.html

Good info on Knight's fight. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-0 ... w-out.html. latest http://www.zerohedge.com/news/knight-se ... e-dilution.If you have Knight Stock you are screwed.

Mario Monti says every is good. We need to wait and see when loans will become available. No new ECB meeting until Sept 3 (ya right , prepare to go long at any time). http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-0 ... uture.html.

OBV not confirming up trend

xfradnex wrote:

KeiZai wrote:Thanks boardies for great charts this weekend


update of AUD/USD plan

The attachment AUD99.png is no longer available

USD/CAD is setting up for take off

The attachment CAD.png is no longer available

Why I am paying so much attention to currencies? Because they say it better what is really going on

The attachment Correlation2.png is no longer available

Correlation between CAD and SPX

The attachment CDW.png is no longer available

Dollar update (looks constructive to me, so far nothing extra bearish)

The attachment Dollar.png is no longer available

KieZai,
Good table. I assume the best combos would have a history of showing some type of laging between one value and the other. Does the AUD and DIA have good lag/lead stats? X

Hi X, don´t know about stats only thing I have is chart from stockcharts

BMW setup, waiting for push up to the top of bear flag/4th wave to go short again