Cobra's Market View

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Small gap up above Friday's high, so not sure if the gap will be filled. I think it'd be filled though as usually the day next to a wide range day is a small range day (boring day).

Global ES looks like a consolidation, so the bias is up. No big pullback allowed here because if it does, then it's another overlap. So far this round push up, all were overlapping.

Good morning boardies: with most of Europe on vacation for a few weeks, liquidity could be thin and volatility rather high....
Posted this data before on weekend updates,if you have seen it, I apologize for redundancy

Seems nuts that US equities could power higher, given the fundamentals, and internals seem to be weaker, and dow theory not confirming blah blah = Lots of reasons to be short.

I think those in power will go to extraordinary lengths to remain in power.
let me know if you want the link, Here is another view, warning me to give i/t and l/t trades a bit of room this month


GLTA, joe

Friday after hours, SPy saw prints near 136.80-ish ,IWM saw multiple prints with 76.xx handle......
Mr Miyagi says those tend to be actual trades due to illiquidity

the open.

volatility is welcome !

Shorted @ open.

I guess you can call me a permabear actually a ubber-permabear.

Target reached, scaled in SPY Puts.

new high XIV

VIX up but SPX up and TICK and TRIN bullish.

short squezze IMO.

ES trying to form one side of a diamond>

Liquidity had an up tick and broke up out of the triangle.If mkt stays positive today liquidity will be higher. Chart by stocktiming

Long term chart. Psychological resi at 1400 coupled with some trendlines/old channels. Could see a dippy/reversal here.

Hi Cobra and All,
When you see discrepancy between VIX and UVXY, which are supposed to be in same direction, which one will generally show the way??
e.g. today VIX is up like 2% while UVXY is down 5%??
Thanks

TradingJackal wrote:VIX up but SPX up and TICK and TRIN bullish.

I got different read on these not that bullish look, neg D on 5 min.

nothing to say, very strong opening. wait.

Weekly mkt strength is still tending up and has a ways to go befor tending dn again..Looks like the mkt wants to test that 1420 area.I would not recommend buying in swing long at this point unless you are already in.I have both swing longs and short and will be holding.

MrMiyagi,
Thanks for sharing info on writing options on Friday. more questions, later in the day...

longer term vix daily chart looks descending triangl'ish - though charting any of these vol products is almost impossible.

gvg wrote:Hi Cobra and All,
When you see discrepancy between VIX and UVXY, which are supposed to be in same direction, which one will generally show the way??
e.g. today VIX is up like 2% while UVXY is down 5%??
Thanks

$VIX is the “untradeable” view of what options traders are doing….i trust it more (?)
VXX, UVXY are swayed by ETF equity trading volume… they show what the ETF equity traders think that the futures volatility traders are doing
IMHO

buy the dip is the game. next dip will tell if the market want to move on.