Cobra's Market View

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No direction, waiting for the 2 pm roller coaster show. The market is expecting 0.5 rate cut, maybe too much?

Predict it Markets supposedly showing 50 50 odds on rate cuts.
Since 1995 Fed has only used .5 as an opening cut twice. The 2000 and 2008 crisis. Kind of difficult to claim the economy is OK but we need a crisis level rate cut.

Bigger problem for the Fed is going to be financing deficits in the middle of a very ugly banking crisis without destroying the dollar.

It is reported that Kaiser Permanente sold their Oakland office tower and parking garage for $20 a square foot.

Show time in 1 min, probably the market will be disappointed, I guess.

I haven't seen this fast moves in a long time. The initial reaction seems down just it quickly reversed to up.

Ding ding ding, Look above and fail? we will find out today, today closed will be very important.

If it is look above and failed price action, today will be the second day of that series. very bearish if so.

Smallcaps seem happiest about the .5% move.

USD/JPY seems relatively unimpressed and showing a sell-the-news GAIN in the dollar.

It's fearful market as of now. No bear No fear, Buy the rumor,sell the news?

ES daily.

At the high of August.

Two dojis in a row. Indecision.

Still is bullish, imo.

But the longer it fails to break through, the bears gain strength.

Inflation expectation: Money is on the higher inflation.

Still not clear, maybe a little bit up bias.

ES 60 minutes.

Ride 'em, Cowboy.

Zip. Zip. Zip. Up. Down. Smaller up.

The market will do what the majority want it to do. That is usually up, with many pullbacks of different strengths along the way. Strong businesses, not houses of cards, lead to stocks moving up. And this trader sees many, many strong businesses out there. Those not so strong fall to the wayside.

ES 5 minutes.

Major chop. Small craft stay at the dockside.

We will see which way the market goes after the excitement passes.

BullBear52x wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 2:20 pm Inflation expectation: Money is on the higher inflation.

A chart of RINF? With a daily volume of 362, at 2 in the afternoon on a Fed day? Really BullBear, that's not an index or a proxy, that's a discussion in a large British pub.

Daniel wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 3:07 pm

BullBear52x wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 2:20 pm Inflation expectation: Money is on the higher inflation.

A chart of RINF? With a daily volume of 362, at 2 in the afternoon on a Fed day? Really BullBear, that's not an index or a proxy, that's a discussion in a large British pub.

Haha at least it's FREE info. Do you have a better Inflation index real time I can plug it in. Thx

BullBear52x wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 3:15 pm
Haha at least it's FREE info. Do you have a better Inflation index real time I can plug it in. Thx

I do not have a better realtime index. Inflation does not exist in realtime. I'll talk to Dr. Copper after the close.


Meanwhile, UUP is only down about .2% as I type this. Barely a response.

Double bottom? FOMC day usually closes weak though.