Cobra's Market View

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Consolidation, breakout on the upside is more likely.

ES daily.

A doji so far.

Inside candle.

Trendline up.

Eyes on the top.

ES 60 minutes.

Good ups on Monday and Tuesday.

Today it is in a trading range.

Needs a breakout.

ES 5 minutes.

Chopping along.

No progress up or down at this point.

The stock indexes, ETFs and futures, are very quiet so far today.

And now they are dropping like stones.

AA. Alcoa.

Founded in 1886. Headquartered in Pittsburgh PA.

Alcoa is making a move.

Alcoa Corp. engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum smelting and casting. It operates through the Alumina and Aluminum segments. The Alumina segment consists of a refining system, including the mining of bauxite, which is then refined into alumina, a compound of aluminum and oxygen that is the raw material used by smelters to produce aluminum metal. The Aluminum segment is composed of smelting and casthouse system. The company was founded by Charles Martin Hall on July 9, 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, PA. -- MarketWatch

The overnight action reminds me of April 19. I remember looking at my charts after Market close and expecting some good volatility. We didn’t get it then, but it certainly happened after. From a longer-term perspective, we may be near a top.

grandeG wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 10:29 am The overnight action reminds me of March 19. I remember looking at my charts after Market close and expecting some good volatility. We didn’t get it then, but it certainly happened after. From a longer-term perspective, we may be near a top.

Correction … March 19

Upcoming options expiration is unusual. 90% calls. As the experts said last week retail and buybacks pushed market higher then boom over the line in the sand where shorts chose to cover. Biggest short covering event in several years. Strange coincidence that all those expiring calls are suddenly worth a lot less.

Last week the Fed had to start "Not QE" by monetizing a huge chunk of the new Treasury debt.
Not exactly sure why a 90% tariff on Christmas stuff is a positive.
Signing deals for oil money investment makes great headlines but last week I read that many oil companies in the Permian Basin of west Texas will go broke with these prices.
I am probably wrong but I just don't see this as anything other than a big bear market rally.

I think today's action shows the technical nature of the move. The big guys have made their move now we are sitting in a little range going nowhere.

It's due for a pull back in a day or two, FOMO get paid so far as long as they don't overstayed.

On my reversal tracker, no new swing low to call for a reversal has started. Patience, React, and Don't predict......too early is wrong in a trading world. Peace!

So far it's a range and now near the range high so a pullback might be due soon if not already started.

Rebounding from range low so it's a range therefore the rebound target would be the range high.

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Thursday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449387

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449387