09/20/2025 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 3 weeks in a row, the next week has 54% chances to close up, 80% chances to make a higher high.

So more up.

[te_fern]

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks!!: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

[grandeG]

One hell of a move up. Bear’s just getting slaughtered. What could go awry ? Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur? In other words sell this Monday then wait until the beginning of October for the next move up. It has a decent track record (maybe 65%), but as with all things I say … take it with a grain of salt. There are some other warning signs as well. As Helene Meisler points out the Put/Call ratio closed at 0.45 on Friday. She also noted the minor divergence in breadth. Charts below. Markets look a little frothy to me and needs a breather .. or maybe I know nothing. Anyways, have a great weekend everyone!

[tsf]

Thank you, Cobra and grandeG.
Helene Meisler recently wrote "My sense of sentiment is that we have complacency but not giddiness. I keep thinking of this cartoon from 1987"

[Trades w 2 Cats]

S&P hits all time high while the $NYMO has a significant divergence. Probably a reflection of the bifurcated market with the Mag 7 continuing to go up wile everything else is flat to down. As they say being right but early is the same as wrong.

This could be the signal for wave 4 of 5. If so fibs say 80 to120 points or so then on up to a significant top.

Scary part for me is this is all driven by capital investment in AI. At this time it is speculation and parlor tricks with this extremely expensive tech. I see post after post of coders arguing over if it makes a difference to their output. It has been a real benefit to those who fraudulently represent themselves on the internet. But without the mag 7 committing huge investment it goes nowhere. Not self sustaining.

Maybe it will change the world but for now it is a very expensive toy. If my opinion is correct than we are waiting for the boy to shout the emperor has no cloths moment. That would trigger the significant multi month pullback the wave counters are expecting in 2026.

[grandeG]

Thank you, Cobra and grandeG.
Helene Meisler recently wrote "My sense of sentiment is that we have complacency but not giddiness. I keep thinking of this cartoon from 1987"

I think that would be more akin to hunting for a unicorn at this point

[JFR]

I was scanning the media, and saw this chart, showing Elon's wealth path...

I have no problem with Elon, seems like a decent guy, maybe a bit crazy. Ha ha.

Has a fascination with the letter X.

And weird names for his kids.

I had heard something of his condition, so I looked it up re Elon and found the article, with url at the bottom of this post.

I agree with Elon that it can be advantageous, in some ways, for some who have it.

When I was growing no one had even heard of Autism or Asperger's.

My opinion is that there is a question of degree. When he mentions how he could focus on programming through the night, I can relate to that. The ability to focus. I do not have the condition, however, although if you look at the symptoms, many people might have some of it, as I said, to a degree. Humanity, go figure, we are very complex, and can be dangerous. Sometimes I am amazed that we have made it this far, now that we dominate the planet.

https://www.everydayhealth.com/asperger ... ,6,%5B6%5D

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Aiyahh. Down sharply, through the Pivot.

Time for some sleep.