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11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 9:11 am
by Cobra
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Double top (red arrows) then breakdown then consolidation so bias is a little bit down as some chances it's a small double bottom here.

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Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 11:14 am
by Cobra

Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 11:47 am
by Cobra
EMA20 now is the bear's last chance for 2nd leg down.

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Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 11:58 am
by Cobra
Double bottom?

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Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 12:22 pm
by Trades w 2 Cats
ES 03-26 (4500 Tick) 2025_12_29 (8_20_52 AM).png
Average tick bar is currently about 4 minutes. Pretty clear shape.

Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 12:41 pm
by Trades w 2 Cats
ES 03-26 (2000 Tick) 2025_12_29 (8_39_34 AM).png
Standard 2,ooo tick showing the slow motion hit on the lower line.

Too much on this chart so I changed VWAP to little boxes so it would stand out from EMA

Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 1:03 pm
by Cobra

Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 1:11 pm
by Trades w 2 Cats
ES 03-26 (2000 Tick) 2025_12_29 (9_09_28 AM).png
short term trend channel maybe.

I should add four touches on the upper line makes bulls look like no conviction.

Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 1:41 pm
by Cobra
Not good, bears in control today. I remember the last year's Santa Rally, most days were down as well.

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Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 2:00 pm
by Trades w 2 Cats
ES 03-26 (2000 Tick) 2025_12_29 (9_57_14 AM).png
Bulls had too much Eggnog last night. Looks like they are waking up. Need to see bounce off that overnight low from above (black tend line).

Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 2:01 pm
by Cobra
The rebound is just the very first step toward a bottom, a revisit generally is needed as illustrated by dashed black lines.

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Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 2:44 pm
by JFR
ES 5 minutes.

Downhill slide. Finds a bottom.

The bounce is pausing at resistance.

2025-12-29_10h42_23.png

Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 3:26 pm
by Cobra
The revisit wasn't deep enough but if two consecutive strong bull bars here (we had only one for now) then I'd consider that the low might be in.

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Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 3:32 pm
by Trades w 2 Cats
ES 03-26 (2000 Tick) 2025_12_29 (11_29_01 AM).png
6,945 is the magic number today. On the fast chart I see it act as support six times and resistance once.Seems to me that the bulls need to close above it.

Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 3:34 pm
by Trades w 2 Cats
Are there enough old fashioned mutual funds left to cause a noticeable year end window dressing? Asking for a friend! :lol:

Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 4:32 pm
by Cobra

Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 4:53 pm
by Cobra

Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 4:54 pm
by Cobra
Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Tuesday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

Re: 11/29/2025 Live Update

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 4:59 pm
by Trades w 2 Cats
ES 03-26 (2000 Tick) 2025_12_29 (12_56_38 PM).png
Ending the day with a close enough ABC. Implies down move has a second leg. Wait for Asian Pacific and Euro markets to decide where to go from here.