Cobra's Market View

Down 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 63% chances to close up.

IF this ending diagonal count (not my work) comes true then we will be revisiting COVID lows for starters. A couple of days ago I would have said, well if we find out that AI was a total waste of billions and we get another year 2000 tech blow up then it seems possible. But as of today I very sadly see a new reason. The horrific videos out of Minneapolis are a huge government crisis and we have a shut down already happening on Friday. Maybe Powell can come up with something to move markets up but I doubt it.

I hope I am completely wrong.

Edit- bars look funny because I am using the Kaufman Efficiency to color outlines and in the case of chop the bars themselves.

"It is what it is department" Only price pays is still well in me. so, lets see what we have in front of us?
A look at last week action: Tuesday: sky is falling.
Wednesday: Bullish reversal, nothing to see here.
Thursday: gapped up like there is follow through but to closed with doji like candle, under key pivot level, stamped a weak sauce action on the board.
Friday: inside day, going no where closing the day dead on the mid range, balanced market per market profile. My read is market is in indecision, no follow through. it may or may not try to push up on Monday, key strategy is to know "look above and fail or look below and fail", or just simply chase the breakout direction. if we follow the price action during the break it should be an awesome trade setup unless the move out side of the range were happened overnight then we will have to deal with gap play in the morning.
Swing setup is in the sell mode, make or break remain to be seen. Intraday: indecision, breakout either side is key for the week directional. Understand key look above/below and fail (trap) or smooth sailing. Peace!.

Now that Asia Pacific is open a bit more clarity. Really need to see Euro Zone open but I am not going to stay up that late! US Cash open is at 6:30 out here on the Pacific time zone. Looking at my fast chart the Fibs are good for wave a. If the opening low tonight is b then a little large. However the projection for c matches minor 5. Minor 5 can't be any higher because of the small size of minor 3. If we blow through those levels after Fed and big tech earnings on Wednesday then a much more bullish count takes over.

On the other hand Senate Minority Leader has promised a US Government shut down on Friday. This weekend the NY Fed intervened in the Treasury Market to stabilize the long end of the Japanese Bond market and the yen negating the US Treasury move to lower mortgage rates. Apparently without the Treasuries knowledge. So maybe the recent all time high was actually wave 5 and we are starting a crash.

Very glad that all I do is day trade 1 day at a time!