Cobra's Market View

Again despite the pullback recently, not much damage on the weekly charts yet. TSX could be a Double Bottom while DAX could be a typical base and breakout setup.

AAII and II.

The follow chart is from Bespoke. Looks like the stock market didn't perform well the 1st, 3rd and 4th year on the re-elected president 2nd term.

another interesting chart from Bespoke. Demo president got elected, the rest of the year not very bull friendly.

$CRB Index looking to kiss the channel before heading back up?

Euro Crisis Over? http://news.yahoo.com/3-bumpy-years-eur ... nance.html

World Market Elders 15 of 15 red. Looks like 5-10-12 on my world volume graphs, two day of dropping volume. My guess is more Red to come. AAPL ATR is second lowest for over a year; from -4.9 to -4.6.

The updated election year script from Bespoke.

Hi folks

classic dollar update : short term structure is clearly corrective as I mention few times before, we are very close to MM target area in the C-wave within rising wedge ( ~81.30 - 81.70)
Big picutre is messy but very clear 81.70 is line to keep an eye on (below bearish, above bullish)

This one is for BB bro

Cobra wrote:Again despite the pullback recently, not much damage on the weekly charts yet. TSX could be a Double Bottom while DAX could be a typical base and breakout setup.

Cobra, as you know I've been trading FDAX this year. For months I have been very closely monitoring DAX in order to get to know its idiosyncrasies. Some reliable (weekly) indicators broke down last week and I'm kind of negatively biased, even though we might see some kind of rebound around options expiry ...

Dotted blue support might hold next week. My gut feeling says no, but I don't know

Rail Traffic Takes A Turn For The Worse
Rail traffic turned down sharply this week as intermodal traffic dipped -6.2%. That brings the 3 month moving average to 2.7%, down sharply from last week’s reading of 3.5%. One week doesn’t make a trend, but rail trends haven’t been negative since 2009 so this is one to keep a close eye on if things continue to deteriorate.

The Dorsey Wright P&F NYSEBP chart went dn 1.4 yesteday putting it in O's..When this happens the dn trend will last for a few weeks or more..The S&P has been in O's for a while but now has broken dn to a neg trend..This has not happened since last fall..The next support will be 1360 then 1330. Mid Oct.I posted that the Dow will hit about 12300 this Nov..In mid Dec 12500/12800..End Dec 11500..Jan 11000 and end May 9500..I know some of you do not agree with this but these figures are from charts I follow on the mkt trends and since Oct they are starting to come together..So as usual we just wait and see..Anything can change..The following P&F charts are from Dorsey Wright commentary..I can't post the regular charts,they have them blocked but not their commentaries.

“Congratulations, you've become a Goldman Sachs partner”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012 ... hs-partner

Also, the guy who was fired by GS for amassing an “inappropriately large” position was hired by MS in a nanosecond
http://dealbreaker.com/2012/11/guy-who- ... more-92692

WEEKLY
LONG TERM
From the 2007 highs
Today you could (arguably) call these:
SPX: a failed retest
INDU: a failed retest
COMPQ: breakdown
RUT: triple top breakdown
TRAN: non-confirmation of the April highs produced a “Dow Theory” primary-bear-market signal which is still valid
Etc…

Are We “Oversold” ?
http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/b ... nvestor%29

uempel wrote:

Cobra wrote:Again despite the pullback recently, not much damage on the weekly charts yet. TSX could be a Double Bottom while DAX could be a typical base and breakout setup.

Cobra, as you know I've been trading FDAX this year. For months I have been very closely monitoring DAX in order to get to know its idiosyncrasies. Some reliable (weekly) indicators broke down last week and I'm kind of negatively biased, even though we might see some kind of rebound around options expiry ...

More down is good

A up and up and up market is boring anyway.

uempel wrote:Dotted blue support might hold next week. My gut feeling says no, but I don't know

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Two short term charts which show the importance of 1370/80. If this area holds and SPX bounces I'm sure to short at the base of the H&S formation at 1405. But that would be too good to be true, only seldom does market open up vaults like that

Last chart for Saturday has a bearish flavor

Weekend update on Gold and tsx
(nothing here should be taken as my actual trades or as trading advice - educational only)

* target met last week and stood aside
* watch 1750 for possible topping in gold

* tsx in sideways channel lower than summer top
* look to sell tsx (eg. HXD.to) in 12,500 area - if it gets there.

Review 6 for week 9 Nov 2012
http://screencast.com/t/zLTUVkAK