Cobra's Market View

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Testing the previous low, 50% chances of double bottom here.

SPY extended hours. 15 minute chart.

Down. Down. Down.

No easy solution to Strait of Hormuz blockade. World economic function disrupted.

SPY 5 minutes.

Gap down.

Getting a bounce.

sky is falling, can you feel it? it not the >7% drop, it's feeling.

Intraday, new swing low, it is bearish bias, gap and go atm. same playbook, different Friday.

Tuesday the JP Morgan collar roles. Talking heads saying it is continuing to stabilize the market. After Tuesday not so much.

Breakdown is more likely.

Gammastrike free feed on X saying support 6,400 with resistance at 6,425.

EMA20 now is the bear's last chance for another leg down. So far looks like a range day.

Bottom shopper. it's Friday, quick ins/Outs, Peace!

As soon as your guts told you to sell everything, market will put in some bottom on you, LOL. have a great weekend. Peace!

Finally a valid breakdown of the blue line. Now safe to say this bear shall have legs.

Two scenarios. First, history does not provide a clue so expect a waterfall drop if oil isn't turned around. Second one is that the last four times the 200 day was breached there was a snap back rally then the real drop happened.

Left side of the daily shows some prior congestion areas where there could possibly still be some support.

Nightmare scenario is of course that the 401 K IRA crowd decides to get out of their index funds. Index funds have no cash so significant withdraws would cause consistent selling.

Walter Deemer on X-
At 2 eastern we are at a 66% down day. Walt says the Lowry's definition of a reversal set up needs a 90% down day for capitulation. He also says not all reversal follow the rules.

Point being this probably isn't over.

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Monday looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377