Cobra's Market View

Down 5 weeks in a row, the next week has 33% chances to close up.

So probably another down week coming.

"It is what it is department" the question is "how oversold are we?" if we are looking at RSI(14) it does not stay down here too long, short term bottom or at least a dead cat bounce is to be expected. in coming week. A look at daily EIS bar, it is red hot but at the historical support level. will we stop here or down we slide? in any cases, no change in color no chance of a trend changes on this time frame. keep it simple Swing setup: selling to continue, rip will be sold until then.... Intraday: new swing low continues, leaning bearish until the trade above 61.8% were to gain the ground. be nimble, keep your powder dry, trade well, know where your money is. Peace!

SPY daily.

All indicators bearish.

Many marabozu bear candles.

Good volume on the move down.

''Lookouts below,'' in submarine jargon.

Do not be looking to catch a falling knife.

''Dive. Dive.''

Everybody on the internet posting daily and weekly charts showing why it is unlikely to keep dropping. Norseman Trading has a nice view where he is showing that we go down around 12% then up 30 or 40% on the longer view weekly. Typical situation, give me a scenario and I will find three experts to support it.

Reality is we trade what is in front of us, not the past. That reality says Wednesday is the first start because it is a quarterly monthly options expire on Tuesday. Julie Wade on X is keeping on with her thesis that European sovereign wealth funds are the primary source of relentless selling. She shows that they need to find 2 billion a year for their defense budgets and have made the decision to dump US stocks and bring the cash home.