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07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 8:12 am
by Cobra
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Double bottom (red arrows) or not, wait and see.

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Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 9:20 am
by Trades w 2 Cats
Julie today.jpg
Julie Wade on X looking for subscribers. Nice look at the ES options distribution for today. They are a significant force, it is good to see what they are doing.

Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 9:24 am
by Trades w 2 Cats
ES 09-26 (5 Minute) 2026_07_02 (9_21_28 AM).png
Payrolls got a short burst then nothing. Wondering if we are starting the slow grind into the summer trading. You know all the big money guys are headed for their places in the Hampton's. I have to say I would like some relaxed volatility. I feel like I have been drinking from a fire hose the last several months!

Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 10:09 am
by Cobra

Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 10:35 am
by Trades w 2 Cats
ES 09-26 (5 Minute) 2026_07_02 (10_32_11 AM).png
30 minutes into regular hours and we have hit 2 sigmas off VWAP in both directions. On paper that says possible range day. Would expect flat line after NY lunch hour.

Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 11:58 am
by Cobra
Double bottom or not here, wait and see. 50% chances.

Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 12:01 pm
by Cobra

Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 12:22 pm
by JFR
ES 5 minutes.

Down beneath the EMA 20 and the Pivot, with marubozus.
Screen Shot 07-02-26 at 09.13 AM 001.PNG

Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 12:35 pm
by Trades w 2 Cats
July 2.png
Moving towards the Gamma Flip. Apparently moving the Fed rate increase back by two months was not sufficient.

Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 12:36 pm
by Cobra
This bear shall have legs.

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Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 12:39 pm
by Trades w 2 Cats
ES 09-26 (5 Minute) 2026_07_02 (12_37_30 PM).png
ATR (in ticks) has started to drop as in the air slowly leaving the balloon called volatility. Real question is will 7,500 hold until Monday.

Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 12:59 pm
by Trades w 2 Cats
ES 09-26 (5 Minute) 2026_07_02 (12_57_17 PM).png
Below yesterday's low. Not going to be a good look for all the 401 K owners looking at charts this weekend.

Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 1:59 pm
by JFR
AAPL

Another nice runup.

P/E is higher than a value stock.

But the revenue and ROE for the last few years justify the price, imo. Its fundamentals look very healthy.

Steve Jobs brought us simplicity, user friendliness, quality and elegance to computers, a lasting legacy.

AAPL.png

Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 2:31 pm
by Cobra
Usually a revisit of the previous low is needed for a solid bottom as illustrated by dashed blue lines.

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Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 3:37 pm
by Cobra

Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 3:40 pm
by Cobra
Classica revisit then rebound. Close is near so maybe not enough time to reverse up.

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Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 3:53 pm
by Cobra

Re: 07/02/2026 Live Update

Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2026 3:54 pm
by Cobra
Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Monday looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377