Cobra's Market View

Algo from stocktiming. The divergence did work, we had a bad week. Now the alog is not oversold yet, so guess the selling is not over yet. Good news is institutional selling is decreasing.

II and AAII. Not extremely bullish yet.

Seasonality about last and first trading day of year: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/last-an ... y-of-year/

Hi guys, I'm not very clear about VIX:VXV ratio, any significance when its above 1? I'm looking at this in the chart book http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/c ... /139801120

Thanks.

thank you. have a good weekend and happy New Year all!

vikasrao wrote:Hi guys, I'm not very clear about VIX:VXV ratio, any significance when its above 1? I'm looking at this in the chart book http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/c ... /139801120

Thanks.

Not very useful now. VXV is 90-day volatility, VIX is 30-day volatility, so if 90-day volatility is far higher than the 30-day volatility then it means the price will be lower in 90-day. Vice versa. However in reality trading, it's very difficult to timing, you never know which level of the ratio is very high/low and you never know how long such a very high/low ratio would last. So it's now just a minor factor.

I see two options there but either way bounce is near imo, after bounce it will become more clearer

ES (first option : corrective decline, I prefer this one) SPY (Second option: first wave down almost done, either (a) or 1)

Daily timeframe, IWM has joined SPY in generating a classic MACD sell signal crossover. Although IWM is only at its 20day sma and still well above its 50, there is no doubt that the overall market trend has weakened. Is it a temporary pullback driven by headlines, and thus a wonderful swing buy oppty?

-Or is it a clear pattern, which at any other time would be an obvious SELL... but right now is being "explained away" as due to what is going on in Washington. Sometimes big institutions like to distribute inventory under the 'cover' of a crisis... or in this case, a "crisis".

1:41 AM 12/29/2012
Flipcharts at Barcharts

Currencies:
swizz franc looking bull and Yen looking bearish - crosstrade?

Grains:
Grains most looking down. Wheat, corn looks like good shorts
Canola was counter-trend just breaking downtrend line - pair against short?

Energy markets
Crude and other energies trending up with a little hesitation (pause) like they are waiting to see - up more or reverse - perhaps waiting for "Cliffy" to resolve is argument with "Normie"

Equity markets
All quite the same - top is in and failed rebound.
Russell a sharper rebound and as not fallen as much from its rebound peak - perhaps a little earlier to get in on?

http://screencast.com/t/Qw18YtzOtTH
GLTA
NTA

------------
Flipcharts Part 2

More on equities and a chart of the VIX
Once again small caps earlier on in thier downmove.

Meats
Live cattle - strong chart
Lean hogs strong but big break in contract rollovers

Precious Metals
Gold - been down since the double peak in the first video 12 weeks ago.
Looking like is trying to form a base here an at a previous support.
Wait for bounce to downtrend line of the two peaks AND a topping action - trendlines are not as strong as S/R levels. Rough Visual about the 1700 area.

http://screencast.com/t/RgOTmmQhKJxy

GLTA
NTA

Looking for some euro weakness in short-term, might it will lead to DAX weakness and BMW as well (shorted on friday)
BMW long-term plan (not updated) BMW (in the zone) DTES: check the mic

I posted this yesterday but to me this chart says a lot. I think that even if XIV bounces here off the 200 ema we will shortly see a big sell off in the markets like in the summer of 2011. This cliff fiasco is similar in nature to those events and the only two real outcomes over the next 2 days to months are an increase in taxes for some portion of the population or a standoff which leads to an increase for all and worse uncertainty. The market will not like either of those obviously.

GS FWIW

Thanks for everyones views today. I have three questions:

Is it true that VIX drives the markets one way of the other?
Is VIX a forward indicator of future market direction?
And the most important, what is everyone's best method for determining when the VIX has peaked and it is safe to buy XIV type products?

Thanks for your help!

Green circle indicates a short-term rebound soon. Since there isn't positive divergence forming on this chart as well as other charts, my 2-cent tells me that mid-term is quite bearish.

Thanks for chart. Sorry cant tell what you are plotting there. I am a newcomer and there are alot of charts that dont make it clear.

Same as with this chart (a copycat of Cobra work).

Summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=772&p=111503#p111503

candles on weekly are telling something no good in the making.

From Calculated Risk: This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In November, 45 states had increasing activity, down slightly from 46 in October (including minor increases). This is the second consecutive year with a weak spot during the summer, and improvement towards the end of the year.

Stock picks for the next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=779&p=111508#p111508