Cobra's Market View

This is just a thread in case someone wants to flood the forum on the very first day of the new year. I wish everyone here have a happy and prosperous new year!

Thank you Cobra. Wish you happy new year to you and your family.

HAPPY NEW YEAR
vote for cobra: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859
Bespoke
note the % change by day
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2 ... -2012.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0xoMhCT-7A

algo from stocktiming no oversold yet.

Seasonality info from bespoke.

Commodity ETF performance 2012

more here: http://seekingalpha.com/data/commoditie ... body&ifp=0

Strategy ETFs Performance 2012

more here: http://seekingalpha.com/data/strategies ... body&ifp=0

Cobra -
Can we buy Macy's here ? 4.44% gain on MON with 1.51 relative volume. I guess a break above $41.55 clears the path , but want to wet hands with stop loss below last FRI low ($36.90), and wondering if you can see any holes in chart and issues going long here

Thanks in advance

tkvprasad wrote:Cobra -
Can we buy Macy's here ? 4.44% gain on MON with 1.51 relative volume. I guess a break above $41.55 clears the path , but want to wet hands with stop loss below last FRI low ($36.90), and wondering if you can see any holes in chart and issues going long here

Thanks in advance

I see kind of Ascending Triangle, so not bad, worth a try. Hold it if it can breakout to a new high.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- House Majority Leader Eric Cantor told reporters Tuesday that he does not support the Senate-approved fiscal cliff deal. Cantor's defection was the latest and clearest sign that the agreement reached between President Barack Obama and Senate leaders faces an uncertain fate in the House. Alarmed by the Republican opposition, House Democrats have called for a straight up-or-down vote on the measure. House Republicans were talking openly about amending the legislation and sending it back to the Senate for action. This could imperil the measure.

Cobra wrote:WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- House Majority Leader Eric Cantor told reporters Tuesday that he does not support the Senate-approved fiscal cliff deal. Cantor's defection was the latest and clearest sign that the agreement reached between President Barack Obama and Senate leaders faces an uncertain fate in the House. Alarmed by the Republican opposition, House Democrats have called for a straight up-or-down vote on the measure. House Republicans were talking openly about amending the legislation and sending it back to the Senate for action. This could imperil the measure.

from CNN Blog; Tomorrow it will be interesting to watch market reaction on this :up up up... lol; Looks like the Republicans drama only lasted for 4 hrs..

7:02 p.m. ET - CNN's Deirdre Walsh reports the amendment Republicans would add to the fiscal cliff bill includes $300 billion in spending cuts but keeps Senate language on postponing the sequester for two months.

6:49 p.m. – From CNN Senior Congressional Producer Ted Barrett on Capitol Hill: Emerging from a GOP conference meeting, the conservative Louisiana lawmaker said there is a growing "sentiment" among GOP lawmakers to allow the Senate passed-bill to be approved in the House because the consequences are too great at this point not to have a bill pass.

"I think the sentiment is that if we really tried to improve, what really is a bad bill, it probably would just frustrate many people so we may just let it go as it is," he said.

Asked what changed so quickly from the last GOP meeting just a few hours ago, he said, "it's one of those things where an idea pops up that sounds good. But then you think through and you look at all the ramifications and problems. I think for many of us we look back at the payroll tax thing that happened a year ago and see that when you see a bill pass with so many Republicans in the Senate, it would probably have a similar result."

He said he expects the bill to pass later Tuesday or Wednesday morning largely on Democratic votes. He will vote against it.

No where to go but up? http://advisorperspectives.com/commenta ... 22812a.php

tkvprasad wrote:

Cobra wrote:WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- House Majority Leader Eric Cantor told reporters Tuesday that he does not support the Senate-approved fiscal cliff deal. Cantor's defection was the latest and clearest sign that the agreement reached between President Barack Obama and Senate leaders faces an uncertain fate in the House. Alarmed by the Republican opposition, House Democrats have called for a straight up-or-down vote on the measure. House Republicans were talking openly about amending the legislation and sending it back to the Senate for action. This could imperil the measure.

from CNN Blog; Tomorrow it will be interesting to watch market reaction on this :up up up... lol; Looks like the Republicans drama only lasted for 4 hrs..

7:02 p.m. ET - CNN's Deirdre Walsh reports the amendment Republicans would add to the fiscal cliff bill includes $300 billion in spending cuts but keeps Senate language on postponing the sequester for two months.

6:49 p.m. – From CNN Senior Congressional Producer Ted Barrett on Capitol Hill: Emerging from a GOP conference meeting, the conservative Louisiana lawmaker said there is a growing "sentiment" among GOP lawmakers to allow the Senate passed-bill to be approved in the House because the consequences are too great at this point not to have a bill pass.

"I think the sentiment is that if we really tried to improve, what really is a bad bill, it probably would just frustrate many people so we may just let it go as it is," he said.

Asked what changed so quickly from the last GOP meeting just a few hours ago, he said, "it's one of those things where an idea pops up that sounds good. But then you think through and you look at all the ramifications and problems. I think for many of us we look back at the payroll tax thing that happened a year ago and see that when you see a bill pass with so many Republicans in the Senate, it would probably have a similar result."

He said he expects the bill to pass later Tuesday or Wednesday morning largely on Democratic votes. He will vote against it.

Thanks, looks like it's just a drama. They have to say something against the bill to show that they did the job.

Cobra wrote:

tkvprasad wrote:

Cobra wrote:WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- House Majority Leader Eric Cantor told reporters Tuesday that he does not support the Senate-approved fiscal cliff deal. Cantor's defection was the latest and clearest sign that the agreement reached between President Barack Obama and Senate leaders faces an uncertain fate in the House. Alarmed by the Republican opposition, House Democrats have called for a straight up-or-down vote on the measure. House Republicans were talking openly about amending the legislation and sending it back to the Senate for action. This could imperil the measure.

from CNN Blog; Tomorrow it will be interesting to watch market reaction on this :up up up... lol; Looks like the Republicans drama only lasted for 4 hrs..

7:02 p.m. ET - CNN's Deirdre Walsh reports the amendment Republicans would add to the fiscal cliff bill includes $300 billion in spending cuts but keeps Senate language on postponing the sequester for two months.

6:49 p.m. – From CNN Senior Congressional Producer Ted Barrett on Capitol Hill: Emerging from a GOP conference meeting, the conservative Louisiana lawmaker said there is a growing "sentiment" among GOP lawmakers to allow the Senate passed-bill to be approved in the House because the consequences are too great at this point not to have a bill pass.

"I think the sentiment is that if we really tried to improve, what really is a bad bill, it probably would just frustrate many people so we may just let it go as it is," he said.

Asked what changed so quickly from the last GOP meeting just a few hours ago, he said, "it's one of those things where an idea pops up that sounds good. But then you think through and you look at all the ramifications and problems. I think for many of us we look back at the payroll tax thing that happened a year ago and see that when you see a bill pass with so many Republicans in the Senate, it would probably have a similar result."

He said he expects the bill to pass later Tuesday or Wednesday morning largely on Democratic votes. He will vote against it.

Thanks, looks like it's just a drama. They have to say something against the bill to show that they did the job.

Cobra, how will you play the gap up? I know your close in red stat, but may not apply here. Playing large opening gaps is hard for me.

Thanks for any tips

Xian wrote:

Cobra wrote:

tkvprasad wrote:

Cobra wrote:WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- House Majority Leader Eric Cantor told reporters Tuesday that he does not support the Senate-approved fiscal cliff deal. Cantor's defection was the latest and clearest sign that the agreement reached between President Barack Obama and Senate leaders faces an uncertain fate in the House. Alarmed by the Republican opposition, House Democrats have called for a straight up-or-down vote on the measure. House Republicans were talking openly about amending the legislation and sending it back to the Senate for action. This could imperil the measure.

from CNN Blog; Tomorrow it will be interesting to watch market reaction on this :up up up... lol; Looks like the Republicans drama only lasted for 4 hrs..

7:02 p.m. ET - CNN's Deirdre Walsh reports the amendment Republicans would add to the fiscal cliff bill includes $300 billion in spending cuts but keeps Senate language on postponing the sequester for two months.

6:49 p.m. – From CNN Senior Congressional Producer Ted Barrett on Capitol Hill: Emerging from a GOP conference meeting, the conservative Louisiana lawmaker said there is a growing "sentiment" among GOP lawmakers to allow the Senate passed-bill to be approved in the House because the consequences are too great at this point not to have a bill pass.

"I think the sentiment is that if we really tried to improve, what really is a bad bill, it probably would just frustrate many people so we may just let it go as it is," he said.

Asked what changed so quickly from the last GOP meeting just a few hours ago, he said, "it's one of those things where an idea pops up that sounds good. But then you think through and you look at all the ramifications and problems. I think for many of us we look back at the payroll tax thing that happened a year ago and see that when you see a bill pass with so many Republicans in the Senate, it would probably have a similar result."

He said he expects the bill to pass later Tuesday or Wednesday morning largely on Democratic votes. He will vote against it.

Thanks, looks like it's just a drama. They have to say something against the bill to show that they did the job.

Cobra, how will you play the gap up? I know your close in red stat, but may not apply here. Playing large opening gaps is hard for me.

Thanks for any tips

It depends, normally, I'd chase gap up if it does not fade for say the 1st trading hour. It's a set of strategy based on back test, so really difficult to answer.

Cobra wrote:

Xian wrote:

Cobra wrote:

tkvprasad wrote:

Cobra wrote:WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- House Majority Leader Eric Cantor told reporters Tuesday that he does not support the Senate-approved fiscal cliff deal. Cantor's defection was the latest and clearest sign that the agreement reached between President Barack Obama and Senate leaders faces an uncertain fate in the House. Alarmed by the Republican opposition, House Democrats have called for a straight up-or-down vote on the measure. House Republicans were talking openly about amending the legislation and sending it back to the Senate for action. This could imperil the measure.

from CNN Blog; Tomorrow it will be interesting to watch market reaction on this :up up up... lol; Looks like the Republicans drama only lasted for 4 hrs..

7:02 p.m. ET - CNN's Deirdre Walsh reports the amendment Republicans would add to the fiscal cliff bill includes $300 billion in spending cuts but keeps Senate language on postponing the sequester for two months.

6:49 p.m. – From CNN Senior Congressional Producer Ted Barrett on Capitol Hill: Emerging from a GOP conference meeting, the conservative Louisiana lawmaker said there is a growing "sentiment" among GOP lawmakers to allow the Senate passed-bill to be approved in the House because the consequences are too great at this point not to have a bill pass.

"I think the sentiment is that if we really tried to improve, what really is a bad bill, it probably would just frustrate many people so we may just let it go as it is," he said.

Asked what changed so quickly from the last GOP meeting just a few hours ago, he said, "it's one of those things where an idea pops up that sounds good. But then you think through and you look at all the ramifications and problems. I think for many of us we look back at the payroll tax thing that happened a year ago and see that when you see a bill pass with so many Republicans in the Senate, it would probably have a similar result."

He said he expects the bill to pass later Tuesday or Wednesday morning largely on Democratic votes. He will vote against it.

Thanks, looks like it's just a drama. They have to say something against the bill to show that they did the job.

Cobra, how will you play the gap up? I know your close in red stat, but may not apply here. Playing large opening gaps is hard for me.

Thanks for any tips

It depends, normally, I'd chase gap up if it does not fade for say the 1st trading hour. It's a set of strategy based on back test, so really difficult to answer.

No prob. Thanks for your help

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!


Indeed ES decline was corrective now my eyes are likely on +-1490
O: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=778&p=111493#p111493
In R2K I think p-bar target looks very likely now

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=768&p=110151#p110151

Dollar index out of the flag, euro reaction is weird but sooner or later will go to the target before correction imo

download/file.php?id=35454&mode=view
silver squeeze fired but not out of the woods yet
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=777&p=111407#p111407