Cobra's Market View

Start with Algo from stocktiming.

It's overbought, so actually a good news because it means a negative divergence is needed before a meaningful pullback is possible, which in turn imply more up ahead (otherwise cannot be any negative divergence, can it?).

AAII and II. II is approaching to extreme now but still not high enough.

The summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=849&p=122634#p122634

The stock picks for the next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=856&p=122636#p122636

The II survey indicated bears at 18.8% only. this is capitulation and it was never a good idea to go long when this condition was met, regardless of the number of bulls. this combines well with the NAAIM survey which gyrates between 85-100 for several weeks now. David Tepper's "balls to the wall" call has been heeded by HF and active managers.
However, we're now in some kind of blow off top that will end badly but can still last longer. Bulls don't want the FOMC statement to indicate anything concerning tightening in this situation.

Tepper's latest rant sounds desperate. He said he's surprised SPX is not up even more this year and the US is on the verge of greatness. He's probably using the euphoria to unload.

Cyprus bailout has been announced today and they're slugging depositors with 100K or more with 9.9% levy and 6.75% levy for under 100K. There might be a bank run over there and possible spill over effect to other EZ countries.

This was ask on the board yesterday...
The 10 Countries Sitting On The Biggest Piles Of Gold
http://www.businessinsider.com/countrie ... rch-2013-3

If don't gap down on Monday, this is what I expect in GLD. Price targets only.

Is this an outlier or the beginning of a trend?

“The largest public pension in Los Angeles… The Los Angeles Fire and Police Pension System, with nearly $16 billion in assets, said it is allocating 5 percent of its money to commodities…” [$800 million allocation to commodities]… This is the first time the system has invested in commodities."

http://www.hedgeworld.com/open_news/rea ... 21951.html

Gorgeous dump and squeeze.
Guess the DAILY chart:
On hubris, Ackman, Einhorn, Ichan, Loeb, and short-selling alleged-ponzi schemes like HLF
Easy and engaging reading, in the new issue of Vanity Fair magazine
http://m.vanityfair.com/business/2013/0 ... -herbalife

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5Xl0Qry-hA

NYSE Short Interest Report
It always lags, but it’s the best we’ve got
Note: GDXJ, IWF, LOW, RSP (that’s the one Cobra watches for “equal weighted”), and others
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... tml#shortD

Especially for newbies, and a good refresher for oldies:
“With national gasoline prices topping $3.75-$4 a gallon - historically a danger level for stocks - the question of how gas really gets priced becomes even more relevant.… we'll follow petroleum's journey from the wellhead to your wallet”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1276891 ... ource=feed

I know it's Triple Witching Friday so volume or money flow may not count but still the money out flow this Friday is astonishing!

People like to say, there's too much side line money. Well, where is the side line money? Everybody now is on board.

Did you know that in 2012, 70% of the American public thought the stock market was down, even though it was up? Although the poll is a year old, I suspect the public still isn't all that interested in the market, because they are buying call options on equities at a pace last seen in March 2009.

https://www.franklintempleton.com/investorsentiment

Cobra wrote:People like to say, there's too much side line money. Well, where is the side line money? Everybody now is on board.

The stock market has been driven by corporate buy backs not retail or pension funds. Companies still have massive amounts of cash on THEIR sidelines that will be put into the market. Don't be deceived by false analysis and improper market sentiment gauges.

ocassional observer wrote:The II survey indicated bears at 18.8% only. this is capitulation and it was never a good idea to go long when this condition was met, regardless of the number of bulls. this combines well with the NAAIM survey which gyrates between 85-100 for several weeks now. David Tepper's "balls to the wall" call has been heeded by HF and active managers.
However, we're now in some kind of blow off top that will end badly but can still last longer. Bulls don't want the FOMC statement to indicate anything concerning tightening in this situation.

A picture is worth a thousand words

For MT outlook, those that are looking for a 10%-20% of correction I don't think it'll happen in a week or two because my MT signals don't show sign of confirmation yet, just getting bearish at this stage.

For ST outlook, maybe my ST model is a dud because it still hasn't been triggered on the downside yet. Whether or not it's a dud, the safest strategy for me is to sit on cash and waiting for market to drop a bit (i.e. 3%-5%) before going in to long for ST play. I won't short the market until my MT model get confirmed first.

It seems like this is a valid break down with huge volume. GLTA next week.