06/01/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Begin with Algo from stocktiming.

All I can say are Algo is not oversold yet, so probably selling is not over yet.

Institutional buying and selling action shows institutions are still in accumulation. Reduced accumulation increased distribution though.

[Cobra]

Smart money record short!

[Cobra]

II and AAII, II still mostly bullish.

[Cobra]

Umpel asked me to post the chart below while he's away having good time. The chart means "this system suggests a reversal/acceleration on June 4th."

[Cobra]

summary of the weekly stock picks. Not a bad week again.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=934&p=132110#p132110

[Cobra]

Stock picks for next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=942&p=132113#p132113

[kenttown]

Umpel asked me to post the chart below while he's away having good time. The chart means "this system suggests a reversal/acceleration on June 4th."

June 4 is a TUESDAY

[joegamma]

happy weekend all boardies-hope you had a productive week!.

KTown:
20 of 20 UP tuesday turns into MDD 21 tuesday major distribution day) , see "Tricks" chart 6.5 for March PIVOT=6% correction due.....that points toward 158.80spy
. http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp/12

I got less short and bot a few calls friday at closing, expecting an inside day up monday (still a bit net short spy)

VIX LOOKS A BIT OVERBOUGHT shortterm, here is 2hour

[Al_Dente]

Tom McClellan’s latest:
“M2’s Slow Growth Creates Opportunity in Bonds”
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... _in_bonds/

[joegamma]

Medium term, more VIX upside?

[Cobra]

Yes, Hindenburg Omen triggered, but it stops working nowadays due to lots of bearish fund and bond fund in NYSE, so the Omen is not as accurate as before.

[joegamma]

Tom McClellan’s latest:
“M2’s Slow Growth Creates Opportunity in Bonds”
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... _in_bonds/

Thanks Wise AL: bought some calls this week, (a bit too early?), and


I like the look of this dbl bottom renko with the positive divergence...

and PF is telling me I probably paid too much for a longer term trade

[Carlos]

Umpel asked me to post the chart below while he's away having good time. The chart means "this system suggests a reversal/acceleration on June 4th."

Cobra,

I appreciate all your efforts and insights. Long time member here. I don't post often due to lack of time. Question. Do you do Elliott Wave?? If not which members do you know does use it?

I have a question on Umpel's quote. Is he suggesting a reversal (ie higher) or an accelleration (ie lower) on tuesday the 4th? In other words.. something happens that day either up or down but he is not sure?

If so then I think its an acceleration lower..... Elliott Wave (EW) tells me we are going lower. I say we bounce to 1640ish on monday (to triangle top) and then drop to 1627/1628 on tuesday.

The key is what will happen at 1627/1628 as I have that as the end of W5... Are we then on our way to 1580/1590ish or will we bounce from 1627 to new highs?? I have a feeling we bounce again and then drop again..

This is my count for a rise to 1640/1642 and then a drop to 1627/1628

Summary From To Points
Wave1 1662 1648 14
Wave2 1648 1659 11
Wave3 1659 1631 28
Wave4 1631 1642 11
Wave5 1642 1628 14

Once there... at 1627/1628. Is this a possibility?? A rise to 1648.92 and a continued fall targeting 1580?

WAVE 1 5.00 1662.00 1627.75 34.25
WAVE 2 3.09 1627.75 1648.92 21.17
WAVE 3 8.09 1648.92 1593.50 55.42
WAVE 4 4.27 1593.50 1614.67 21.17
WAVE 5 5.90 1614.67 1580.42 34.25


What are your thoughts? Does this make sense? What are your thoughts on what will happen at 1627?


d

[Carlos]

happy weekend all boardies-hope you had a productive week!.

KTown:
20 of 20 UP tuesday turns into MDD 21 tuesday, see "Tricks" chart 6.5 for March PIVOT=6% correction due.....that points toward 158.80spy
. http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp/12

I got less short and bot a few calls friday at closing, expecting an inside day up monday (still a bit net short spy)

VIX LOOKS A BIT OVERBOUGHT shortterm, here is 2hour

61vix2hr.png

Joe,
What is MDD?

[Carlos]

Yes, Hindenburg Omen triggered, but it stops working nowadays due to lots of bearish fund and bond fund in NYSE, so the Omen is not as accurate as before.

I see. Thanks.. But if you follow astros... A puetz window recently opened. In addition, another puetz window will open in November? Could that be the month we crash from the all time highs that we should have then?

[joegamma]

shorter term TLT shows bearish breakout FAILURE:

Some pattern recognition idea:

for price targets on a P&F, take horizontal count (# of boxes in consolidation from5/23-5/31 give 9 sideways boxes like a spring getting compressed, but we only got 7 from breakdown at 11457,
Then we got a quick rejection reversal back into consolidation range,as shorts realize they sold in the hole so that now points at larger projection to upside like a slingshot , so 9 boxes added to high of consolidation now will target 117-ish (the high volume area).

I used to used using 2x6 ( 2/32 by 6/32 bond tics) by hand gave a great feel and smell to upcoming price movements, also the gann fans were simple with the grids (1x1=45 degerees, 1x2, 1x4, etc were useful support/resistance fans....with the stockcharts electronic P7f, I have not yet fond the useful scaling for iwm, qqq, spy YET, and my hand charting has been getting rusty for the past 2 decades ...

But p&f charts do not care about time, only price fluctuations, so we do not know how long it might take to get to targets...The treasury market could sit at these price levels and ponder if FED will ever allow 10yr yield to hold above 2.20-2.25% GLTA!

[Al_Dente]

Michael Stokes publishes a “Day of Month Seasonality” calendar
Last month was the first time i followed it every day
Out of 22 trading days in May, his calendar was correct 12 days and incorrect 10 days
He reported that his April calendar was pretty abysmal also
Here is his calendar for June:
http://marketsci.wordpress.com/
[ALTERNATIVE: flip a coin]

[joegamma]

CARLOS and Cobra: what is the exact definition of Major Distribution Day? (i thought we almost had one friday, but not quite?).

Is it when nydnv:nyupv is greater than 35? see Snake Tricks here

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX ... 4747&r=568

here is another distribution discussionhttp://investdaily.custhelp.com/app/ans ... t-index%3F, search online, there are plenty of views on these, GL

[shaca]

bullish megaphone on the 10 year t-note
finally USD/CAD broke the neck

[joegamma]

Umpel asked me to post the chart below while he's away having good time. The chart means "this system suggests a reversal/acceleration on June 4th."

Cobra,

I appreciate all your efforts and insights. Long time member here. I don't post often due to lack of time. Question. Do you do Elliott Wave?? If not which members do you know does use it?

I have a question on Umpel's quote. Is he suggesting a reversal (ie higher) or an accelleration (ie lower) on tuesday the 4th? In other words.. something happens that day either up or down but he is not sure?

If so then I think its an acceleration lower..... Elliott Wave (EW) tells me we are going lower. I say we bounce to 1640ish on monday (to triangle top) and then drop to 1627/1628 on tuesday.

The key is what will happen at 1627/1628 as I have that as the end of W5... Are we then on our way to 1580/1590ish or will we bounce from 1627 to new highs?? I have a feeling we bounce again and then drop again..

This is my count for a rise to 1640/1642 and then a drop to 1627/1628

Summary From To Points
Wave1 1662 1648 14
Wave2 1648 1659 11
Wave3 1659 1631 28
Wave4 1631 1642 11
Wave5 1642 1628 14

Once there... at 1627/1628. Is this a possibility?? A rise to 1648.92 and a continued fall targeting 1580?

WAVE 1 5.00 1662.00 1627.75 34.25
WAVE 2 3.09 1627.75 1648.92 21.17
WAVE 3 8.09 1648.92 1593.50 55.42
WAVE 4 4.27 1593.50 1614.67 21.17
WAVE 5 5.90 1614.67 1580.42 34.25


What are your thoughts? Does this make sense? What are your thoughts on what will happen at 1627?


d

Carlos: maybe you answered your question re Uncle Uempel view (of Movement-direction now unknown)....He has been hot with some of his viewpoints: a few weeks ago he did not think spx would get above 1677 area....wed/thurday in traders lounge he had a nice diamond pattern to trade against too, both helped me be short

As the the elliot stuff, scan the lounge for TWT, who has some clear wave patterns to watch, GL!