04/06/2011 Intraday Watering

[ocassional observer]

Hi Guys,
i've been reading this blog for some time now and enjoy the comments although day trading is not for me. however, intermediate to long term technical outlooks compliment my fundamental approach. I just wanted to point your attention to the investors intelligence survey out today. money managers jumped the gun this week with 57.3 bulls to 15.7 bears, thats 3.64!! bulls for every bear up from the respectful 2.2 bulls to every bear last week, and the highest level in the last several years. i do not have the statistics for this level and this kind of w/w jump but it can't get much more bearish than that.

[BullBear52x]

SPY piercing 5dma first time since last Tueday Low. Closed below 5dma is very bearish, sell the rally will be in place then.

[StrikePrice]

Major Breakout in Copper (JJC)... I thought that's supposed to be bullish?

Are the big boys just loading into Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil and leaving us with this bi-polar market?

The underside of the broken triangle is providing a nice line in the sand but I still see the market crawling higher under the line because of news items like this: "Unemployment falls in three-quarters of US cities".

Tricky to go big either way huh?

[uempel]

Using MA 195 as a signal on the 10 min chart:

[BullBear52x]

Using MA 195 as a signal on the 10 min chart:

195.png

That's what I use. it's mirrow 5 dma.

[koolblue]

From sentimentrader: "The first four trading days of April have been quite positive, as we discussed coming into the month. But that runs out today, and then for the next week SPY has been positive only 37% of the time. QQQ (Nasdaq 100) was up 33% of the time. "

[Cobra]

Hi Guys,
i've been reading this blog for some time now and enjoy the comments although day trading is not for me. however, intermediate to long term technical outlooks compliment my fundamental approach. I just wanted to point your attention to the investors intelligence survey out today. money managers jumped the gun this week with 57.3 bulls to 15.7 bears, thats 3.64!! bulls for every bear up from the respectful 2.2 bulls to every bear last week, and the highest level in the last several years. i do not have the statistics for this level and this kind of w/w jump but it can't get much more bearish than that.

Well, here's the statistics you wanted.

[uempel]

A second close look at threshold MA 195:

[FJoe]

Going back to about 1998, the period from 4/5 to 4/8 has been where several big reversals have taken place. Some have only been a few days while others have been a month or so. See 98, 00, 01, 03, 04, 05, 06, and 08. So I would guess we go down for a few days at minimum.

Also, the leaders are getting hit, IYT, AMZN, PCLN, NFLX, BIDU. The day is still early, but this could be a top for at least a little while.

[ocassional observer]

thx for the info, cobra!
that's not bad but i believe taking into account the B/B ratio gives a more decisive answer. however you can see the last time such a spike appeared was just before the 10% correction of jan 10.

[AK84]

cobra

time to go short ? lots of bearish engulfing candlesticks on many charts - PCLN , GOOG , AMZN , SOHU , OPEN , NFLX , etc.

what od u think ??

[BullBear52x]

5dma is the most use MA for traders. 10min(195) 1h (35) that's my default ma.

[koolblue]

first stop...133.38, then eventually 133.54

..BINGO!...FIRST OBJECTIVE MET...133.38

[Dow Trader]

In my range bar chart says that we will go below today's low in ES and Russell
1st target es = 1322
2nd target = 1300
as you know this is range bar so the time is not important

[mafuada]

Well, here's the statistics you wanted.

Am i wrong to say it looks overall bullish since 09 (minus the April 10 signal)

[BullBear52x]

$SOX and SMH managed to break out over 5dma yester with NSM and TXN news(National semi conductor and TXN merger) very successful, still holding above 5dma, Bulls should look into that, but since Qs doesn't support that move, buyers beware.

[uempel]

Algorithms are following MA 195/10 min today - by the minute, by the second. It's been going on for an hour now and I'm bored. Bye guys.

[abracadabra]

TRIN watch

[BullBear52x]

Now that's everything is line up, it's Magic market time. see where are we going to park today.

[ocassional observer]

Well, here's the statistics you wanted.

Am i wrong to say it looks overall bullish since 09 (minus the April 10 signal)

it depends what you look at. if you look at the duration of bullish bias than this period is similar to 07' and 04', in both times the market did poorly.