Cobra's Market View

BullBear52x wrote:see /es reistance at 1922.5ish and 1911.5 is bubble low, so I am still leaning bearish to close.

Same leaning. Today was pretty cyclilcal: 1 hr down, 1 hr up, repeat. We just finished an hour of up, so finishing the last hour lower would fit the pattern

Double top?

Well, bulls had about 20 minutes of hope today. I suppose it's better than nothing.

Here's something I've been playing around with. I wanted something similar to the T2123 breadth indicator but more responsive after large moves like in August and January.
Note: With this chart the values mean nothing, only the direction matters

S&P still in this channel
Russel not as clear. Possible breakdown and backtest. Not sure who to believe

:shock: A ONE MILLION DOLLAR BET ON SPY :o Early yesterday morning, ahead of the FOMC, a large bullish bet crossed on SPY. A trader bought to open a multi-exchange sweep of 62,500 weekly 195-strike calls…With the contracts priced at 16 cents each, the transaction put the trader back $1 million … ht...

I think I found the Bull train...

Russel green after being down 3.8% at LOD

Wednesday and Thursday: Looks like the stage is set for a rate hike, Everyone Sell!

Friday: Jobs and unemployment look good, more justification for a rate hike, Everyone Buy!

those numbers stink. who in their right mind would hike rates..

Less than 50 is a contraction, correct?

Today is TVIX future expiration date and tomorrow is for VIX expiration date. Currently VIX futures are in huge backwardation... Fehro, can you please confirm? Thanks Slight backwardation right now front month only. Nov is 17.75 and Dec is 17.70. The rest of the curve looks normal http://vixcentral...

IWM, JNK,HYG all positive for the day Risk on?

cletus wrote:No comment

I'm actually curious for a comment. We're 1% from an all time high but the fear gauge looks like it's going the wrong way.

XIV is inverse VXX which is the market equivalent of VIX. Yeah, I'm just not used to seeing it have such a disconnect with the S&P500. XIV is up 8.7% over the past 3 days vs SPY up .68% and I'm wondering if it's a topping signal. I haven't done any real analysis yet, but at least looking back a...

Can anyone explain why XIV is on such a tear? It's not correlated to SPY like it normally is.

Aunt Janet speech will be released (un-embargoed) at 10 EST. News service said it would be 10:30 or later before Q & A starts. Goldman said yesterday they don't expect anything market moving. Looks like it spooked somebody. Anyone have a link to the transcript? Bullet points from WSJ (http://bl...

Trades with cats wrote:Aunt Janet speech will be released (un-embargoed) at 10 EST. News service said it would be 10:30 or later before Q & A starts. Goldman said yesterday they don't expect anything market moving.

Looks like it spooked somebody. Anyone have a link to the transcript?

fehro wrote:SPX… H&S. .. RS in?.. or need to make another.. target 1995 .. if it plays out

I've also got 195 as the lower bound on this channel

Daily SPY I went back tonite and looked at all recent rallies that came immediately after a correction ended. I looked at the first couple of weeks. How many times do you think I found back to back red candles? ZERO! Except for Jan 9 and 12. That wasn't the short-term bottom, but looking at the can...

Love the board. Thanks for creating it