Cobra's Market View

LONG time no see. Crazy ass bull market, but now it looks kind of toppish to me. But then the Daily ADX has potential crazy bull cross.

I am not bearish into tomorrow. this dip as long as it stays above 1835, I will find excuse to buy intraday. I'm thinking of trailing a long on this swing down. Sometime tomorrow or the next day . . . but then it's the weekend :x It's looking like a bottom, but I'm just getting used to bear market ...

A bullish outcome would have SPX close above the 5 DMA (about 1875), then gap above the 20 DMA tomorrow. But then, immediately conk its head on the down channel from the 12/29 hi. Of course, that would require a hard reversal right here at the gap.

AD bull bias (top panel) A few red ticks lead bears to thinking that a neckline break is immanent Bulls must hold that neckline (yes, it is drawn sloppy), else boom.... My intermediate indicators are positioning for a buy, but I may take a small short on a break of the trend you cite. I'm thinking ...

Small short taken at 1864. Not a lot of confidence in it, late in downtrend (I think). Stop above HOD.

This price action is the computers seeing how far into a pennant price can run until it breaks out (or peters out.) Maybe we'll flatline into the close.

AD bull bias (top panel) A few red ticks lead bears to thinking that a neckline break is immanent Bulls must hold that neckline (yes, it is drawn sloppy), else boom.... 210five2.png My intermediate indicators are positioning for a buy, but I may take a small short on a break of the trend you cite. ...

Gonna just float around the price where i bought in, eh? :roll: Even though I suspect we might be in a 5 wave down from the Dec. Hi, positive divergences are forming with the Jan low, I was expectin a 60min move up to at least challenge yesterdays gap down (a wave 4 of 5 perhaps.) Let's see how thi...

My 2 cents : An interesting consolidation pattern (continuation or reversal?) has developed since the January low on the SPX. I’m not sure which it is, although my cycle study suggests a couple possibilities discussed below. Shorter term, a 60 min swing up to test a downtrend from the 12/29/15 2081 ...

Found this riddle in David Tang's column in the FT a few weeks ago. The conundrum (which in my view is not a conundrum) shows that what we read or what we see confuses our logical thinking. We only find solutions if we push aside any preconceived (or printed) ideas and use our brain to analyse/solv...

Good morning. Well, most of my indicators say look for a long entry, except for the fact that all the MA's are bearishly aligned. Certainly, there are long plays to be made, but I may consider going to bear market rules and looking for short entries instead, of which I see no set-ups at this time fo...

Got to bounce here

Nibbled at a long today, hope to hold for a few days.

Hello all. What a week with all the gaps! For all my efforts to go long, I'm basically flat for the week and in cash. I would have been long Friday, but I read a blog post by Arthur Hill (Understanding Bear Market Bounces, Patterns, Signals and Retracements) at Stockcharts on Thursday night that thr...

From my view, IF a breakout of the 3 week downtrend is about to happen, Negative Price Reversals on the 60min and Daily RSI pointing to 1799 imply that a backtest would follow, but a higher low on the 60min swing (meaning a non-confirmation of the NPR) could be a good set-up to go long for a few days.

Anything wrong with this count? Looks good 2 me I have same fib on SPY 60min What does NPR mean? Top panel RSI Positive and Negative Price Reversals are described in 'Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional', Connie Brown. They work and confirm trend. A non-confirmation happens with a trend...

Anything wrong with this count?

BTW, the mostly reliable Buy signal (swing to intermediate) I mentioned over the weekend fails with the Lower Low. Although, my most conservative entry never triggered, that keys off highs defined by the 60 min stochastic.

dang this is a good move folks, we going to test 1800 at least imo, finally a capitulation day, set up for bounce!!! here levels i watch... 4 Week Low 13 Week Low 183.52 52 Week Low 182.40 this one breaks, we may get near or past 1800..... 14 Day RSI at 20% 171.51 There appears to be a no buy filte...

Al_Dente wrote:

rhight wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:

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Wait, I see a green square, all hope is not lost!

hey nice to see u back

Thanks, I drop by occasionally, just not often enough