Cobra's Market View

2 day decline in store right here, then new marginal highs, the a bigger correction.

The NASDAQ hit 3000, hasn't been hit in over 10 years...we aren't blowing through that number on the first try.

The day isn't over yet, but I think only QQQ and SPY are making higher highs today. IWM, IYT, DIA, GLD, the NYA.X, XLF. Does that flash any warning signs this run is almost over? Of course when we see AAPL close below its open or a topping tail...it may be wise to keep riding this up...but signs are...

10/11/07 was the top of the market...the prior day had a candle just like today, and it opened up on 10/11/07...and the market went down from there. Has the same pattern...but it's a big stretch reading this into it.

What percentage chance does anyone think this is 10/11/07? 2%, 5%, 25%...meaning a top for this entire rally.

It is never different...but this feels like the May 2nd top right here. AAPL is likely at the end of its parabolic move here...and the Greece news is now over...much like the Bin Laden news. Markets top on perceived good news...that really either doesn't matter to the market (Bin Laden death, while ...

112211 spx lt.JPG Here is the chart going back 20 years. Previous times (since Jan 1900) 50/200 SMA Monthly death cross happened were Nov 1917 Feb 1920 May 1934 March 1940 Then what happened and how long did it take??? 1917- Market gained 40% in the sell mode 1920- Market gained 37% in the sell mod...

Cobra,

Today looks similar to 7/7, 8/17, 8/31, and 9/20. The previous day finished down, but above the open (and was the 1st down day, very key), then we gapped up today and it should be the last up day for a while. Great place to swing short with a stop above the high of today.

Cobra, Do you look at the candlesticks and how they end the day. If we end somewhat close to the high of today it would look like 5/19 or 5/31 of this year...meaning a down open would/could be bad tomorrow. Also, this is the weakest rally of the 4 that we have had going back to August 10. Does that ...

Cobra,

2 questions.

1) Think the low of today will hold

2) What level on the SPY would turn you bullish today.

Thanks

Why does a business channel not mention the futures have dropped 1% in the last half hour...no explanation...they will tell us after the market closes today probably.

any news out there for this drop? I know Europe is going down again.

Since March, the NFP down opens have closed flat or higher on the day, with none getting down more than 5 points from the 9:30 open.

On up opens on NFP, the market ended below the open.

So both reversed the trend of the gap.

Today could be different, but I am closing about 65% of my shorts here...

Cobra,

If we close green today, do you see a gap up potential tomorrow?

Thanks.

The 75 period weekly moving average has been resistance and support since about 1990. It is currently sitting at 1215 on the S&P. I think it might explain why there could be a tough time getting through this today.

Cobra wrote:

nonabear wrote:Cobra,

Nasdaq led this up this morning, now the NQ is lagging (a little)...mean anything...any target on a move down on the SPY before a move back up.

Thanks.

I don't see NQ lagging now.

Just slightly on the 30 minute chart...very minor, but maybe not now.

Cobra,

Nasdaq led this up this morning, now the NQ is lagging (a little)...mean anything...any target on a move down on the SPY before a move back up.

Thanks.

Cobra and others,

Any target on how high we rebound...back up to 1172 on the ES???...or higher

Thanks

So do we hit 1500 today on thee S&P at this pace today...unbelievable.

Cobra,

Any chance we retest the open on the ES at 9:30 EST - at 1124 ish...if not, do you see any move back down.

Cobra, do you consider this the first rebound or the 2nd rebound since the low right after 10:10 EST, with the first rebound stopping at 10:30 ESt...or was that too short

Thanks

Thanks Cobra