Cobra's Market View

Guys how do you manage not to think too much about the markets on the weekends? These long weekends are always excruciating. Actually important point to consider. Typically younger guys or beginners equate more work thinking effort or more knowledge with success not only in trading but in other area...

daytradingES

i apologize for using the term "anal retentive"

good luck to all with your trades

taggard I think using the phrase "anal-retentive" is both unnecessary a direct personal attack and you have been awarded the i-list. Your post is a great example of setting up a straw man only to take it down. Since you don't have any idea of how I use estimates it is unnecessary an incor...

slightly more clear--example says "on down move" really i am talking about start and then move up--after down move. so they are assuming it will continue whatever direction it is going--then are proven wrong in degrees--sorry about that

Hi Cobra, I trade short term. The reason I am here is your post on short-term I am a day trader and 5 points takes me out - my stop loss. (This is for the board in general) Here are the questions I look at: 1. Which is the first point of the day - price and time 2. Will the first leg be up or down?...

RE Mr Bachnut-- Yahoo! One model, one filter, two protocols (actually three: trend, swing and a do nothing protocol). The backtesting made me salivate. The swing protocol is ready to go. Right execution will matter as always and will be more challenging as a layer of complexity has been added. So, u...

http://www.oaktreecapital.com/MemoTree/Risk%20Revisited.pdf lifted from ritholtz's blog. (1) On the other hand, I’m solidly convinced the future isn’t knowable. I side with John KennethGalbraith who said, “We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know –and those whodon’t know they don’t k...

Consolidation here is bullish (a concept previously learned from Cobra). "Momentum is the ‘tendency of investments in every market and asset class, to exhibit persistence in their relative performance for some period of time' (Berger et al. 2009). Since the first significant studies on momentum...

By the way, these kind of predictions are always tricky. And it's not only the free money which is pushing stocks higher, it's also the qualms of investors to play this 2009 rally. As soon as there no Wall Of Worry is left the market might tank - but skepticism towards Yellen's policies, the Ukraine...

My goal is fewer and smaller. I have let go of perfection. I journal every trade (about 120-150 per year) as well as missed trades. I measure actual entry price, size and exit price against what is prescribed by my setup. I note any important context that mattered to execution. Quarterly, I sum the ...

Either the models flopped (setups will fail a certain % of the time) or I goofed. It turns out that I goofed. Part of the issue was me being out last Friday and part was a miss on my execution. So, I have to score this an error. :([/quote] again newbies mostly--key idea is when stuff doesn't work wh...

Not much selling til 195.0 though. That's smart money mostly and they got it cheap. The pain threshold is way back down there.[/quote] as bull bear says rally till it's done--and your point also. however eventually we hit the 200 ema spx and likely bounce first time down there. i am not really hyper...

At least, should put this rally a cap >> double top anyway ! [/quote] people would say too obvious to be true. I dare not believe any bear patterns anyway.[/quote] Yeah thats for sure. Friday's Jackson Hole will bring more info about probable Fed move. Lets see how the market reacts. a nice outcome ...

note on gaps/rules (for newbies mostly) Watch which side of the trend the gap is on. Watch where in the (1) longer primary trend direction the gap is (2) where in the shorter secondary direction trend the gap is. (example--we are in both a primary uptrend and a secondary up trend. so gap to the upsi...

I suppose it all depends on how strong you want the signal to be and the old trade-off of being early vs missing some of (or all of! :o ) the move.[/quote] just a thought or two. "how strong the signal is" is both the signal itself--and the mind of the viewer. esp the latter. amusing vid a...

my today's trading story in chart. You can see my comments do reflect my actual trade. It's not just for fun here... outstanding post you are doing everyone a great favor with this. newbies esp should be paying close attention here. the whole point is trading is not chart reading--that is why they ...

Have you read this book? Volatile Markets Made Easy: Trading Stocks and Options for Increased Profits (paperback) Paperback – December 31, 2012 by Guy Cohen (Author)[/quote] i have not read this book--but would just like to pass along the idea that if you have not traded options before--trade them o...

It looks like the 197 and 198 strikes are the battleground for OPEX. Hard to say where the market would be without OPEX. agree. . . but 2 points earnings tonite are important in the sense they can drive prices short term. further on any sell 196 spy has a decent cluster of open int. Further in gener...

But they sound good do they? :lol:[/quote] Just an opinion (i don't follow kass) here are two important things for most people (1) the idea they can "understand" the story-philosophy-idea-theory etc. (2) generally the sense of confidence in the person putting out the idea or what have you....

intc up 9 weeks and large bar this week?