Cobra's Market View

McClellan Summation Index has gone negative.

BullBear52x wrote: ↑Wed May 21, 2025 1:55 pm A beauty of being old is you don't have to proof anything to anyone and nothing seems to surprise you.

I'm old and everything surprises me.

Terrible 1pm 20yr Treasury auction.

We are always listening to what Dr. Copper and Friar Hi-Yield are saying. Always. The animal spirit of the copper market is saying Price is above a rising 50day sma, well above a stable and flat 200day sma, and in the top quintile of the past 6 months. And 12day ROC is at a 6month+ high. The animal ...

"It is what it is department" HYG (hi-yield bond etf) is soaring above its 200day sma. Yet SJB, short junk bonds, is also above its 200day, just barely. How is this possible. As a simple inverse, it should be crushed below its 200day by a roughly similar amount. Also, short funds tend to ...

Perhaps TLT is as good a realtime inflation gauge as we can hope for. Today TLT is down 1.2% as I type, and shying away from a local HI earlier this week.

Entering the final 15min bar only the R2K is still green.

BullBear52x wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 3:15 pm
Haha at least it's FREE info. Do you have a better Inflation index real time I can plug it in. Thx

I do not have a better realtime index. Inflation does not exist in realtime. I'll talk to Dr. Copper after the close.


Meanwhile, UUP is only down about .2% as I type this. Barely a response.

BullBear52x wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 2:20 pm Inflation expectation: Money is on the higher inflation.

A chart of RINF? With a daily volume of 362, at 2 in the afternoon on a Fed day? Really BullBear, that's not an index or a proxy, that's a discussion in a large British pub.

Smallcaps seem happiest about the .5% move.

USD/JPY seems relatively unimpressed and showing a sell-the-news GAIN in the dollar.

Copper, IWM both hitting their 200sma today, first time in a long time.

In the midst of panic. First such touch usually yields a strong bounce.

Let's keep our eyes on Corporate bonds. Considering the state of sovereign deficits, Inv.Grade Corps are probably the safest bonds around. In simple TA terms, note how LQD tested its (upsloping) 200day SMA twice in April, and now has closed above the 20day. Next target the (downslope) 50day SMA? Sum...

Let's keep our eyes on Corporate bonds. Considering the state of sovereign deficits, Inv.Grade Corps are probably the safest bonds around. In simple TA terms, note how LQD tested its (upsloping) 200day SMA twice in April, and now has closed above the 20day. Next target the (downslope) 50day SMA? Sum...

Q. How many days above the 200day sma has $xbd spent in the month of May?

A. None.

Considering that broker-dealers are often ahead of the curve, and a harbinger indicator, this is of grave concern to equity bulls.

te_fern wrote:Anyone else having to transition from TD Ameritrade to Schwab today. I guess I'll have to figure out a new screen setup and how things work!

The forced transition is hitting clients on a rolling basis. It hasn't gotten to my account yet.

Thx to AD for the sample Schwab chart.

Note the extreme underperformance of R2k and RSP today. Fear is greater there.

Intraday bears be cautious-- NYSE and Naz advancers both just pushed to a fresh HOD. IWM and SPY are both trying to break and hold above recent local highs. If they do it could be a quick rush up to longer term resistance.

BullBear52x wrote: ...we will soon see if Musk is the real deal.

Tesla stock is down 70% in a year. That has to weigh on him--or anyone--psychologically. And for someone with a big ego, it can blow up into a serious depression (or compensatory mania). I'd keep a close eye on him, if I were a shareholder.

Al_Dente wrote:"It's becoming increasingly clear Tesla is just another car company"

Just another? From a valuation standpoint it's still "3 car companies--GM + Ford + Toyota". (per Bloomberg, earlier today)

How absurd is that--even still?

There once was a superb tactician who posted on this Board, by the name of Dow Trader, who used to always remark "keep your eye on the dollar". And that was at a time when the 10-day intermarket correlations btw some measure of the Dollar Index (currency basket) and the risk asset universe...

UUP lod