Cobra's Market View

Perhaps TLT is as good a realtime inflation gauge as we can hope for. Today TLT is down 1.2% as I type, and shying away from a local HI earlier this week.

Entering the final 15min bar only the R2K is still green.

BullBear52x wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 3:15 pm
Haha at least it's FREE info. Do you have a better Inflation index real time I can plug it in. Thx

I do not have a better realtime index. Inflation does not exist in realtime. I'll talk to Dr. Copper after the close.


Meanwhile, UUP is only down about .2% as I type this. Barely a response.

BullBear52x wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 2:20 pm Inflation expectation: Money is on the higher inflation.

A chart of RINF? With a daily volume of 362, at 2 in the afternoon on a Fed day? Really BullBear, that's not an index or a proxy, that's a discussion in a large British pub.

Smallcaps seem happiest about the .5% move.

USD/JPY seems relatively unimpressed and showing a sell-the-news GAIN in the dollar.

Copper, IWM both hitting their 200sma today, first time in a long time.

In the midst of panic. First such touch usually yields a strong bounce.

Let's keep our eyes on Corporate bonds. Considering the state of sovereign deficits, Inv.Grade Corps are probably the safest bonds around. In simple TA terms, note how LQD tested its (upsloping) 200day SMA twice in April, and now has closed above the 20day. Next target the (downslope) 50day SMA? Sum...

Let's keep our eyes on Corporate bonds. Considering the state of sovereign deficits, Inv.Grade Corps are probably the safest bonds around. In simple TA terms, note how LQD tested its (upsloping) 200day SMA twice in April, and now has closed above the 20day. Next target the (downslope) 50day SMA? Sum...

Q. How many days above the 200day sma has $xbd spent in the month of May?

A. None.

Considering that broker-dealers are often ahead of the curve, and a harbinger indicator, this is of grave concern to equity bulls.

te_fern wrote:Anyone else having to transition from TD Ameritrade to Schwab today. I guess I'll have to figure out a new screen setup and how things work!

The forced transition is hitting clients on a rolling basis. It hasn't gotten to my account yet.

Thx to AD for the sample Schwab chart.

Note the extreme underperformance of R2k and RSP today. Fear is greater there.

Intraday bears be cautious-- NYSE and Naz advancers both just pushed to a fresh HOD. IWM and SPY are both trying to break and hold above recent local highs. If they do it could be a quick rush up to longer term resistance.

BullBear52x wrote: ...we will soon see if Musk is the real deal.

Tesla stock is down 70% in a year. That has to weigh on him--or anyone--psychologically. And for someone with a big ego, it can blow up into a serious depression (or compensatory mania). I'd keep a close eye on him, if I were a shareholder.

Al_Dente wrote:"It's becoming increasingly clear Tesla is just another car company"

Just another? From a valuation standpoint it's still "3 car companies--GM + Ford + Toyota". (per Bloomberg, earlier today)

How absurd is that--even still?

There once was a superb tactician who posted on this Board, by the name of Dow Trader, who used to always remark "keep your eye on the dollar". And that was at a time when the 10-day intermarket correlations btw some measure of the Dollar Index (currency basket) and the risk asset universe...

UUP lod

brokebybernacke2 wrote:vix is RED, hello

VXN and RVX are down as well.

UUP is well off its daily high.

From Briefing.com.. "FedEx (FDX 150.04, -5.14, -3.3%) shows steep losses following reports that an internal memo indicated the ground division expects lowers volumes during holiday season. UPS (UPS 160.27, -5.32, -3.2%) trades down in sympathy. Avis Budget (CAR 179.45, +1.38, +0.8%) is the only...

Cobra wrote:Bear flag breakdown?

QQQ fresh lod. SPY, IWM not yet.

From R.Hanna (Quantifiable Edges).. Monday and Tuesday saw the best 2-day start (+5.73%) to any month since the inception of the modern $SPX in 1957. Using months that were up > 3% in first 2 day performance as the metric, to give a broader sample, looking at SPX performance going fwd the next three...

LQD at 103 is at a 4-year low. (Except for two weeks in March 2020.)

All capital gains in inv.grade corporate bonds over the last four years are gone.