Cobra's Market View

Had to close my SPY short out at 406.

short term bear should run for a bit.

getting follow thru on bear signal on friday.

market looks bearish to me going forward. spy is at 406. lets see how far it drops.

ok, who bought the market one of those bounce houses today?

not very Nova Scotia of them to put their HQ in Toronto...

the AI wars may have helped cause the drop today. googles version of chatGPT called "bard" screwed up in a test run and shares of google tanked as a result.

is this our life now? every week the fed or chair says something and the market goes haywire?

the 50 dma is sloped downwards on the weekly SPY. has been for a long time. thats a great definition of a bear market. to get bullish, youd have to see that slope upwards again. price has moved above the 50 dma, so its possible we have a new bull market forming. however, it did cross over the 50dma ...

weekly SPY: the 50 has crossed under the 200 dma only twice in its history. first time was roughly around October 2001 and the second time was roughly around November 2008. its currently nosediving towards its third bearish cross but not there yet. the actual crash involved in those bearish crosses ...

my $nyhl and $nytot system is still intact and chugging along tho.

I used to like trading upper breaches of the bb on SPY. Unfortunately, it never happens anymore. the last time a candle was fully above the upper bb was April 6th, 2021...... I also used to have a trading system on SPY that had a winrate of something like 83-1 or something ridiculous. that stopped g...

currently, SPY is showing short-term overbought but its also sitting at a lower high.

yesterday was the last day to get out imo. the slide continues. have to say, BOE throwing in the towel yesterday was about 6 months earlier than i thought any bank would throw in the towel and attempt to reverse course, there must be some issues under the hood. 3600 gonna go. i got in yesterday. on...

this market is a malodorous indignity!

https://nypost.com/2022/08/19/half-of-companies-to-lay-people-off-survey-suggests/ Half of US companies gearing up for layoffs, survey suggests By Lydia Moynihan August 19, 2022 11:18am Updated More than half of all US companies are planning to lay off employees as they brace for an economic downtur...

https://layoffstracker.com/

This one seems to track all layoffs, not just startups.

I found this site

https://layoffs.fyi/

If you click on layoff charts, it gives you a look at layoffs in chart form over time. As you can see, layoffs began spiking again this summer. Neat tool!

Its a chart for STARTUPS only tho. But perhaps thats the bet measure.

I know this forum is geared to intraday. But I thought I ask a more long term question. Yield curve has inverted. Major corporations have begun hiring freezes and/or layoffs. Consumer spending is coming in under expectations. How confident are you the market will crash in the next year? on a 0%-100%...

On inflation: I'm old enough to remember the inflation of the 1970s. I was following the market even back then. I can give you my first-hand account on how they beat inflation. Defeating inflation involved two steps. The first step was a drastic interest rate hike. Most people know about this. But t...