Cobra's Market View

Pretty hard to miss when the text of Waller's speech was released to the algos-
Looks like potential double top, meets the 30 minute guideline and in an area of prior resistance support. We will soon see.

That was Fed speaker Waller apparently saying cutting rates in 2024 was not what Da Boyz wanted to hear.

Ha Ha, long weekend is the word of the day. I doubt big guys want to sit through three days with risky positions on, so expect squaring up before the close.

Also twitter feed reminding everybody VIX options expire next Wednesday, so maybe we get some strong moves after that.

Feds Kashkari (Cash and Carry) speaking today. Lets see how much gas he can throw on the fire PPI started.

Looking for a third touch of 38.

I had to move magenta 1 up a little and (ii) just a touch but this has been sitting pretty much as is for a day or two. Will see what happens once we hit the 4,800 level.

Something triggered an algo for a fast 10 point drop. We now have that really ugly bearish engulfing daily, waiting to see how long until they bring it back up to neutral.

If Da Bulls can't turn this around we could end up with a really ugly bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart that every amature technician (like myself) will be staring at all year.

Same chart only the bars are 1/3 the size. Makes me feel like I can see the algos firing off.

MES 03-24 (2400 Tick) 2024_01_10 (11_20_05 AM).png Just a comment on chart styles. This is my attempt at a five minute equivalent using tick bars. My point is that I have it set to not use equal spacing. The chart scrolls at a fixed rate and the bars paint as the trades happen. Makes it very clear ...

4815 is supposed to be the take and hold objective according to the volume profile experts. The right CPI reading tomorrow would allow the market to move on up into the 4850 area. We will find out an hour before the regular open tomorrow, so be prepared!

It seems that spike was the response to the 10 year treasury auction.

Fed's Bostic talking this morning about goldilocks. So claiming no cuts till 3rd quarter but no concerns about employment or wage growth. Also we are due for some upside to relieve oversold pressure, not forgetting they have to give discretionary January retirement contributions an "opportunity...

I should add the weekly VWAP which anchors on first trading day of the week has acted as a bull barrier for three days in a row. I looked back a couple of weeks and it was not doing the same thing on the way up to the top.

ES 03-24 (5 Minute) 2024_01_05 (12_31_24 PM).png Here we are yet again walking on the ledge.If Bulls going for a double bottom they need to step up on Monday. They have already ruined the first week of the year stats. Those odds ( first week determining January, January determining year) aren't ove...

Early start on weekend comments. The wave counters I follow are pretty much in agreement that a wave 4 down is either done or close to it. They are looking for a five up to pretty much complete the sequence off the October lows. I am thinking that we need to get through an FOMC meeting and January O...

Well we sure got a second leg up. I added the smoothed On Balance Volume and it sure says no shorts for now.

The lower than hoped for but still within forecasted range for services PMI at 10 Eastern spiked the market up. Fed rate cuts for 2024 went from 135 to 140 basis points.

Dancing on the edge of the cliff !