Cobra's Market View

VWAP being honored by a small bounce. Waiting for that first standard deviation line lurking at 7398. Follow on target at the opening print. Not going to be great looking daily bar for the bulls.

ES 09-26 (6000 Tick) 2026_06_26 (1_58_11 PM).png Seems like a higher level of consolidation. Maybe more up from here? I marked out the heart of the four day volume profile. I think we are stuck in a range with occasional breakouts in both directions that have yet to actually move us for more than a...

If we break VWAP 1 sigma line is a pretty obvious target. Nothing has exceeded 2 sigmas today so I am guessing 1 sigma would be it.

Straights, Tankers Trump- Well here is Double Hull Tankers, what more of a sign do you need? (Hint for our Canadian friends 1776 is a significant year in American History and we are almost at the 4th of July)

As we grind out quarter end re balancing the pattern becomes more obvious. Waiting for July when the herds of cape buffalo stop moving and the buyback juice is on hold.

Stops at yesterday's point of control which is also a significant fib level. So will it be the pause that refreshes or the end of the line?

ES 09-26 (2000 Tick) 2026_06_26 (9_38_28 AM).png Ugly profile from Globex session. Looks like the AI fan boys are not having a good week. On top of the Open AI IPO being postponed for a year we see that capacitor pries are up 20 X making memory look reasonable. They need something positive over the...

ES 09-26 (6000 Tick) 2026_06_25 (2_04_59 PM).png Was admiring the bi lateral symmetry of yesterday and today. Before the open the free stuff from the options services on X was showing the puts and calls on Micron. They were showing traders locking in profits and buying downside protection. So a wav...

ES 09-26 (6000 Tick) 2026_06_25 (10_31_31 AM).png Stepping back it looks like bulls get one more chance, at best. The big and frequently mechanical rules driven funds are doing the quarterly re-balance. Usually means sell some winners and buy what ever looks reasonable.It will be done by Tuesday cl...

Well what ever just happened was certainly exciting

My take on a down count. 7,400 interacts with significant fib levels. Time will tell.

My take on the 60 minute says we are getting close to making it very clear that the bull counts are not correct. Expect resolution after Micron reports.

Really strong support tested at night, tested early and now tested again. Expect that id it breaks it will be tested from below.

Slower chart showing how VWAP and it's standard deviation levels have interacted with price action today.

Dropped through VWAP like it wasn't there. Next obvious test would be 1 standard deviation at 7,442 ish

ES 09-26 (2000 Tick) 2026_06_23 (1_20_46 PM).png They moved it above VWAP but are stuck at the VPOC for the regular hours session. All they need to do is break into the low volume above today's high and the overnight sell off will be behind us. Waiting to see conviction from the buyers. Besides qua...

Space X options positions.
They borrowed 20 billion. Cathy Woods is buying the dip. Everyone who bought it is now under water.

Move is stalling out. Just before the low volume nodes.

I did not know that semi conductors are now 18% of the market capitalization. I do not know if they are included as a part of AI which is supposedly over 30%.

ES 09-26 (2000 Tick) 2026_06_23 (10_02_27 AM).png Today the volume profile is pointing out a bunch of low volume nodes that make it clear that a retrace above 50% should not need much buying. But we are reminded that all the major funds are doing their quarterly re balancing and I have not seen if ...

Of course the ES has a bull count. It can drop more and still be a wave 2 down. This is the count that needs something to move the bulls into a violent wave three up to new all time highs.