Cobra's Market View

They have more than enough time to get back up to today's high.

ES 06-24 (27700 Tick) 2024_05_03 (10_34_13 AM).png Today, for capital preservation Friday 1. Employment head line number was down, market said yea people loosing jobs now the Fed will cut. Of course 12 of the last 13 months that jobs number was lowered in next months "revision" and we are...

ISM flashing stagflation was the probable cause of the drop on the hour.
What do we have left, I think just Nvidia mid month to save the market.

Dancing on the edge of the cliff.

Pretty clear that we could hit an air pocket if the market heads south.

Volumetric chart was boring so I switched to dark with think or swim price bars AND dropped to 15 minute. I like the day's summary on the right hand side.

ES 06-24 (27700 Tick) 2024_05_02 (6_55_13 AM).png Larger context. The big one comes out on Friday. The experts have been claiming the BLS has a large political bias these days and the monthly jobs report is no longer taken seriously by the major banks. However we are all the victims of Pavolvian co...

Center of gravity for the 1st half hour

Who ever turned on the machines to run the market back up to the much beloved 5110 level did not wait for a meaningful comment from Powell. His talk that they are far away from a hike came well into the move.

Returned to the scene of the crime for Nicks story on the Fed, so Market doesn't care. Maybe the big boys have their put insurance.

Mag 7, Nvidia is really red along with Tesla, other 5 are green, I have no idea what that logic is.

At 8:02 Pacific time the Fed whisperer (Nick Timiraos at WSJ) said the June cut is dead (we knew that) and that this meeting starts the pivot to hawkish for summer. If you were wondering why the rug pull!

ES 06-24 (30 Min Volumetric) 2024_05_01 (8_14_04 AM).png Well, at least we are forming a recognizable volume shape so far. I am guessing the option markets are showing a ton of cheep bets both ways with those 0 DE options. If so they will increase volatility as the market makers have to hedge as th...

Very low volume sell off. Good news and a bit of a short squeeze and up she goes!

ES 06-24 (2000 Tick) 2024_04_30 (11_17_36 AM).png Nothing to add to what has already been said. Market has to be concerned about a rug pull by the Fed. Yellen is voicing concern (which is a new move) so my guess is Powell has no choice, he must try to jaw bone about controlling inflation because he...

Sorry, didn't add the chart I was looking at. Fat tails Traders Dynamic (better known as a fancy RSI) trying to move into oversold.

Friday VPOC at 5134. Touched Friday PM, in the overnight and now. If this falls apart I like the empty node around 5121 to 5125.

Bond people all saying this afternoon's data release by Treasury is a yawner. Wednesday morning "could" be market moving, then the follow up from Powell in the afternoon. Person noted on X that market liked earnings from those selling AI to others, did not like (Facebook) those trying to u...

ES 06-24 (2000 Tick) 2024_04_29 (9_42_22 AM).png As of Friday the Friday high was at the existing call wall. Supposedly most of the call wall survived expiration. When the Put wall was breached earlier last week we dropped hard and fast. The call wall today is not generating much follow through and...

Obviously positive tilt waiting for news.