Cobra's Market View

ABC B wave hanging by a thread. Monday will figure this out.

ES 12-24 (5000 Tick) 2024_09_20 (11_49_01 AM).png Looks like the zig zag is holding up so far. Valid 3 wave move for wave B and this could be wave C. Text book target is a high volume node but I do like the idea of a gap close. We will see next week if this completes and we rocket up to new highs a...

Trend line break forming a 2x top on the fast chart. Waiting for slow chart to confirm.

ES 12-24 (5000 Tick) 2024_09_20 (10_11_31 AM).png If this is a W 2 down then it should be a zig zag. So looking for a 5 3 5 pattern with W C= W A. right now the retrace foe W B is text book at 50%. I marked the level of B which if exceeded blows this count up. This is an entertaining exercise but n...

Not my count, but so far holding up well. After expiration dealer gamma levels will shift big time changing volatility. Also moving into buyback black out window.Last negative idea is that really big overnight gap from Fed panic rate cut.

Something changed. Out of the channel

Wish I could claim credit for this count, but it does look very good to me. On average market peaks six days after the first cut. So maybe this wave 1 will extend.

It is reported that Kaiser Permanente sold their Oakland office tower and parking garage for $20 a square foot.

Predict it Markets supposedly showing 50 50 odds on rate cuts. Since 1995 Fed has only used .5 as an opening cut twice. The 2000 and 2008 crisis. Kind of difficult to claim the economy is OK but we need a crisis level rate cut. Bigger problem for the Fed is going to be financing deficits in the midd...

Should add that the tick chart show shows you how the volume is moving out of the old contract just by glancing at the width of the trading day.

ES 09-24 (5000 Tick) 2024_09_17 (12_28_43 PM).png Gosh, not a surprise to see us back at the high volume node and very much within the range. Chattering class is saying .25 by Fed is risk off while .5 is risk on. One thing is certain, there is a lot of uncertainty about what they will do. If I unde...

Could easily close the overnight gap.

We have seen this before. Strong move during European trading on no news then it fades into a range during prime hours. Here we are an hour later still at the opening print.

Amazon is laying people off as we move into Xmas shopping season. So the Market is saying Amazon management is dumb?

Market challenging the iron dome. It's all up to the Fed.
History never repeats, but it sure rhymes a lot! (Mark Twain)

Public Service Announcement- add 61 points to your charts !

Looks like market is coiling for a third try at breaking the the high volume node and opening the way to new highs.

Just a reminder of what prior Fed rate cuts have done.

ES 09-24 (70000 Tick) 2024_09_13 (7_01_29 AM).png So the big drop was all AI and Mag 7 inspired. The recovery was all AI and Mag 7 supposedly funded by selling the VIX. But now they are back to the hard slog to move this higher. Waiting for the Fed next week.And over the last 24 hours they have bee...

Wow, W 4 was a lot deeper than I expected. The Elliott Wave stuff is entertaining, when it is clear what is going on.

OK, I see the classic five wave impulse up, need the three wave pullback and then it is a bull stamped, at least on paper.