Cobra's Market View

Dating back to 1962, there are 13 streaks of 6 or more down weeks in a row on the SPX. There are only 3 streaks of 7 or more...and none more than 8 weeks...per Tradestation data.

Per what I posted previously their is a cherry pick long as of 2:00 EST...but it needs to go up now and can't trade below the low of the day. Really need this above 1266 by 2:30 for confirmation, but then it has to hold the low of the day. Really should wait until 2:30 for confirmation.

Something I find helpful is to use a continuous ES chart with a 30, 45, and 60 minute bars. We have had 3 sets of higher lows and higher highs since 8:15 am Thursday morning. As long as we don't get a close below (and likely a trade below 1259, the trend should be up). I also use a 60 period RSI and...

How do options handle the changes in the dividend/price rebalance on the SPY. The SPY was trading 11 points above the ES futures at the close and are now only 4-5 points above them. Basically they moved the price in the SPY down, how do the options re-evalueate this. Thanks. I have SPY 130 Jul Call ...

Vix is finally starting to react to the downside move in equities. Anyone thing we hit 1250 during the regular trading session...seems everyone is looking at it (which is likely why we couldn't reach it the last couple of moves down). Everyone will buy 1250, unless we get a gap down below it...which...

Just seems not normal we would go straight down to 1250 (if that is where we are going) without a 20-30 point bounce first. Is the overnight action similar to 5/2 where it traded up overnight and opened well off the highs...and then 5/25 where it traded down overnight and opened well off the lows. S...

Cobra,

Thoughts on if the HOD is in?

Yesterday looks like 1/28, but feels different. Am bullish above the low of 5/25, and bearish below.

For tomorrow. The last 6 times the S&P was down 22 points or more after an up day (meaning today), the following day was up 5 of the 6 times. The time the S&P went down again, the market opened slightly lower. In the other cases the following day opened up. See 10/19/10, 11/16/10, 1/28/11, 2...

1323 on the ES was where we broke out on the 2nd try last Thursday...so I would guess it is hugely important for that to hold.

I mentioned this the other day regarding the 32-33 trading day cycle, with counter moves every 15-17 days. Start with Jan. 28 and you will see it. Cycles don't last real long at times, but this one is working projecting a low around May 24...and now a high about 16 trading days from there. This also...

amalgamator wrote:Hi all,

A bullish combination below. Only caution: a small window of geomagnetism forecast 27-30 May. But I'm long and watching the space weather...

27may1.gif

27may2.gif

Great post.

Does anyone understand the swing high and swing low strategy. Did we have both a daily swing low and swing high yesterday...so wouldn't the real breakout be whichever direction was broken...and the high from yesterday was taken out...so more upside?

Thanks

Cobra,

Will you be Long or short going into tomorrow? Bias for me is up. Thanks.

Down or up today, anyone see this similar to 3/17 and 4/19 when the overnight traded much lower on the ES and the ES never saw those levels during the regular session. Same is true on the flip side with 5/2 as it trade up overnight and opened well off the overnight high and never reached the overnig...

Just an FYI and this time may be different. The last 3 big selloffs lasted Aug. 9 to Aug 30 = 15 trading days Nov. 5 to Nov 30 = 16 trading days Feb. 18 to Mar. 16 = 17 trading days May 2 to May 23 = 16 trading days or 17 trading days if the low of today is taken out...so I assume we are close to, i...

Question? Don't day trade much at all. If we break above 1316 on the ES does that mean anything. Just looks to me like the market will break up and not down...conversely if we go below 1311.50 now it looks really bad. If short would you cover above 1316...and if long, cover below the low of yesterda...

There is a 15-17 day trading cycle and 31-32 day trading cycle at work currently. Start from 1/28 and you will see the highs and the lows. Yesterday was 15 days from the May 2 top and 32 trading days from the 4/6 top. Plus it works in well with the 14-15 week cycle tops since the bottom in 2009. Cyc...

Does anyone see this as a bottom, since the VIX could go negative today...also the last 6 times we had this setup, it marked a bottom. This does look a little different, but going long here for a swing trade outweighs going short. See these dates and what followed them...similar set up to today. 3/3...

AUDUSD is looking good...and that tracks with equities also.