Cobra's Market View

Almost reached that P-Bar, now almost matching the drop from last sell day. Clearly, looking at the bid ask delta in box 3 year end activity was masking distribution. Was not expecting this until Wednesday when Santa Rally was supposed to end.

My theories for next week are being challenged. Bloomberg News said yesterday that the Georgia election has very very low chance of being called Tuesday night. Likely to take weeks. So when will the big funds redeploy their money? Oh well, never any easy button answers! Still I do think a gap open o...

Happy New Year and here is to a healthy happy and prosperous 2021.

A good way to start would be to stop trading when the London/Frankfurt crowd goes home today because there won't be any volume.

Year end shenanigans and of course tomorrow could be brutal. More important Tuesday is the end of Santa Rally and probably in the middle of the night we find out who marginally controls US Senate. Experts are predicting that it doesn't really matter because a block of centrist senators from both par...

Starting to look weak. Range has been missing decent entry signals, all wicks and stems which is not exactly confidence building.

Back at OR low (60 minute) that stopped the first bounce!

ES 03-21 (24000 Tick) 2020_12_29 (12_14_40 PM).png So as usual market has cancelled all moves from news, that is President's veto drop has been recovered. However there is the matter of the year end P-Bar and it looks like a jot of unexpected positive news or major fund rebalancing could get us the...

from Tick Toc on twitter- A Warning

"They have kept the last trading day of the year open for a reason and it’s not you! It’s for very large traders to manage books for tax purposes. Very large , 40-50 point moves unexpectedly can occur within a minute or two."

Whoops, forgot to make the third Keltner visible. Usually leave it off. Takes a really three sigma event for the third level to be over run.

I really like keeping those Keltner channels on the EMA. It is an ATR of the EMA, not price. It is amazingly accurate most of the time.

Slow student today. Did not see the major trend channel at 9:30 central when it would have been most helpful. As Cobra said the money was in the morning moves.

Breakout up trend but I did not see any decent looking entry bars. Always frustrating but discipline keeps your account in tact.

Dropped below EMA. EMA sloping down. Next test opening print (thankyou Captain Obvious !)

Firs test of the days high . Need a deeper pullback to find buyers. Need to meet Cobra's suggestion of 30 minutes for double top.

Edt-really really need to drop below EMA before I trust that the high is in.

Could be the morning high. Certainly looks like it.

Can they keep 3700 into the close? If not will the Santa Rally be called into question? Maybe it is in the hands of the US Senate, or as Groucho never said "The $2,000 question". We all know new $2,000 Robin Hood accounts are way better than $600 accounts.

Target reached.

Balanced on the EMA, you know that 3700 is calling as loud as it can.

Breakout and pullback. So on up or fail and drop to range bottom?

Took it long enough to fail at the opening print. So once again behold the power of the stats on the 60 minute opening swing (not likely to violate both high and low same day), of course today is not over!