Cobra's Market View

AAPL up 6%. "...stocks continue to rally following their earnings report. Presumably, month-end rebalancing activity is also playing a factor in the intraday turnaround." - Briefing.com

With the reading like this on $VIX, the $BPSPX, the bottom is more and more likely to hold. Joining the IWM in making a new multi-day low today, and showing marked relative weakness, is JNK. Hi-yield and smallcaps are both considered to be "canaries in the coal mine" for the major indexes...

brokebybernacke2 wrote:prepping helmet. lets get new lows out of the way...

New low in IWM today, significantly undercutting the 1/24 low. But no new low in spy, qqq, $nya, or RSP. Are the smalls leading, or an out-lier..?

Bears beware. Could be an important W bottom forming in IWM. Multi-day bottom. Not so clear in QQQ. The LOD must hold, because it is support going way back. But if it does, ROC-25 is below -10. It almost never goes that low in IWM, in a 6mo chart timeframe. Last time, the rally up was the December e...

For any given market you can draw a bullish chart, AND a bearish chart. I have seen many, and an equal amount of both this weekend! Am I right? If so, what do we do next week? I am currently flat and available for hire by either team! :) One thing you could do is what BB52 and Al Dente often do: dr...

Cobra wrote:Not good, now test yesterday's low is likely.

Yep. Brisk march to a gap fill on SPY, QQQ and IWM. Now, being a Friday (as BB52 was so kind to point out, four times), is the rest of the day going to be a Fade-the-fill trade..?

BullBear52x wrote:.. down, me thinks

UP, sez $XBD, as it hits a decisive fresh HOD.
Always good to watch XBD on a last day of the quarter. Brokers and dealers move things around on such days.

Daniel wrote:iwm lod

QQQ now testing its LOD, which is holding...

iwm lod

XLI, XLB, ILF lod

Cobra wrote:Probably just a range day, might rebound or consolidate to let the (5min) EMA20 catch up first.

QQQ has done so. SPY not yet.

SPY grn

Probably just a range day. This observation, made at 9:50am ET, seems to be coming to fruition. At the noon check, both NYSE up/down volume and advances/declines were virtually even, one a bit negative the other a bit positive. On Friday at noon, with such a bleh configuration, there's rarely a dra...

We noted the other day a sudden emergence of smallcap RS, after a period of underperformance, and it's showing up again today. IWM is the most domestic, and econo-sensitive, of the majors.

BullTart wrote:Yoohoo...papa is calling... come to papa! Din-din is getting cold!

Well BullTart, sez IWM, you can keep yer stinkin TV dinner--we're actually thinking of breaking out to a fresh HOD.


Very odd and bifurcated market right now, sector-wise.

Interesting that SPY seriously undercut its LOD, QQQ has tested it, but IWM has not come close and holds well above.

Any kind of IWM leadership in RS has been rare lately.

5/12 'Norway plans to draw a record 382 billion kroner from its wealth fund, forcing the world’s biggest sovereign investor to embark on an historic asset sale to generate cash. [Norway’s Finance Ministry via Bloomberg] ps: they own tons of U.S. stocks. Perhaps the Fed will just print more money, a...

QQQ is within spitting distance of its intraday high, but IWM is well off its hod.

A long QQQ/short IWM pairs-trade based on relative strength continues to do well on an intermediate term basis.

QQQ only got a brief minor afterhours surge from the Netflix news.

Oddly enuf, given the banner headlines on oil, XLE is not leading to the downside today. In fact, it is holding onto its 20day ema better than many other sectors.