Cobra's Market View

The NYMO cycle is DOWN. We hit the lower Turn Zone on Monday and bounced. Presently, we have a positive NYMO divergence with price hitting new lows while NYMO is comfortably above the NYMO low. Perhaps NYMO will drop next week to cure this divergence. Otherwise, there may be a rally on deck once pri...

The NYMO cycle nominally remains UP, but as of this morning it looks set to put in a lower low with a lower high as it approaches the zero line. The model won't declare the cycle formally down until we get two negative closes. That said, the July 29 NYMO high is looking like the cycle high IMO. For ...

BachNut bonus chart... A few observations on the SPX weekly. We completed the tag of the two year moving average in May anticipated by the negative RSI divergence last year. Like prior instances, the index went a ways below before recovering and closing above the average a few times. The moving aver...

The NYMO cycle is categorically UP, but it has been making a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The cycle remains up as long as NYMO stays positive. This pullback could simply be a corrective move to the zero line while price consolidates. Alternatively, we began a downcycle following the July ...

Al_Dente wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote:Last few times I have logged on I haven't seen Al Dente.
Is he still coming around?

I'm here boss.... lurking....

Bueno.

Last few times I have logged on I haven't seen Al Dente.
Is he still coming around?

Quick BachNut update... NYMO cycle remains up. However, we have turned down from pretty high in the upper Turn Zone. So, the NYMO high for this cycle may be in, and we won't be able to confirm a down cycle until NYMO gets negative. :roll: If a cycle high is confirmed for July 29, that would set a be...

The NYMO cycle is UP. However, we hit the upper Turn Zone just as price hit the middle keltner band. With upper Turn Zone hits, we look for a change in character (price reversal, consolidation, or blast off). It kinda looks like consolidation so far as NYMO corrects toward the zero line. There is a ...

Mr. B quick update... A few minutes ago we got our tag of the middle keltner band. We noted edge for that outcome a while ago. Unfortunately, the juice of the trade was greatly consumed by the falling target rather than rising price. Also noteworthy, NYMO was ticking the upper Turn Zone when the tar...

The NYMO cycle is up. However, the cycle high so far was back on June 27. Bulls kinda need to get back up there. Last post, which was also back in June, I noted we hit the upper turn zone (intraday), and this did indeed signal a change in character from climbing to consolidation. The 6/28 high and t...

The NYMO cycle is UP. Notably, we are back in the upper Turn Zone intraday. The recent moves between Oscillator extremes have been quite a ride. Got Liquidity? There is not much of an edge to NYMO hitting the upper Turn Zone. It just calls for attention to market character. Sometimes you get reversa...

Not the usual BachNut fare today. It seems possible that some kind of low has been put in and maybe some kind of summer rally may be in the offing. I don't know, just a possibility. We shall see. I posted this chart late last year noting that the negative RSI divergence was suggesting a move to the ...

NYMO is making a higher high after a higher low and is now tagging the zero line. While we need two closes above zero to turn the model UP, it looks like things are headed that way. Yes, it could just be a corrective move to the zero line, but given various positive divergences that were occurring a...

Bonus chart... The VIX cycle confirmed a low today breaking Friday's high and the May 19 high. A down gap opened from Friday's close at 27.79. So, something for the bulls at some point. The June 8 low of 23.74 is quite high for a cycle low, which seems rather bearish. The May 2 cycle high of 36.64 m...

The NYMO cycle is DOWN. We are now in the lower Turn Zone and breaking the April and May NYMO lows. :shock: We went from the upper Turn Zone to the lower Turn Zone in four trading days. Wow! :shock: The market can find a low down here or it can decide to proceed down to the Oversold Zone before find...

crash event fri/mon - 3,650 expected, huge vix spike into the 40s or 50s maybe? Conversely, failure to break above 33.11 (the 5/19 high) offers something for the bulls. VIX remains in a down cycle making lower highs lower lows (albeit volatile). It is a little surprising given this morning's price ...

Looks like the NYMO cycle will confirm DOWN today. I have marked the chart as such but it needs the close to confirm. Intraday, we are quite a ways to the lower Turn Zone. :shock: Perhaps we plunge more. Perhaps we get a relief bounce in days ahead to correct to the zero line. I don't know. We opene...

One more thing... This NYMO high on 5/27 was very extreme. So, if per chance price breaks upward, I would expect whatever new price highs to come with a negative NYMO divergence. This would offer a NYMO benchmark price of SPX 4158.49, and the model would give odds that gains above that would be give...

The NYMO cycle remains UP? NYMO is declining from an extreme high in the upper Turn Zone but remains above the zero line. Time will tell if this is part of an unfolding down cycle or merely a corrective move to the zero line. Price is in consolidation and possibly a bull flag. Price should be inclin...

An overdue BachNut... The NYMO cycle is UP. In fact, we are in the upper Turn Zone as I write. This does not offer as much edge as visits to the lower turn zone, but it does tend to signal a transition in the market. The transition may be a rally kickoff, an up trend going into consolidation, or a r...