Cobra's Market View

Stocksage, My point is todays gap will get filled in 3 days...and if it isn't filled today, the upside is very limited after today. I do think if we break above the Feb. highs we are on our way to 1430 by July. I am just looking at it from a swing trade perspective and nothing else. Plus I can't see...

Totally agree with Cletus, and I am sure the gap today will get filled either today or early next week. It is extremely rare to find 2 gap up days in a row where at least the 2nd gap isn't filled either on the 2nd gap up day, or a couple of days later...but after that, we should go much higher...but...

Regarding the VIX.

http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonst ... tRlYgOKPuk

Says vix should go higher

Interesting how the DOW $DJI and the Transports $DJT are diverging. Dow hit a new high today and the transports are negative for the day right here. I guess OIL is more important to watch than almost anything...with a close second QE2 and a possible extention of this in some form. The DOW and TRANSP...

Cobra,

How did you come up with 8 days...very, very good IMO. Like today, if we aren't higher 4 days from now it is bad news for the markets.

Jungle/99er, FWIW, I do agree with 99er on the bearish outcome...eventually but the key is to follow the trend or follow people with no bias. An example is Tony Caldero from EW and he is super bullish, but he was bearish on the market until Feb. of 2010...and it basically went from 667 on the S&...

Uempel,

Thanks, that is what I see too...looks similar to 11/27/09 and 12/17/09 in terms of a pattern where you get a big down day after an up day, then the next day closes higher.

uempel,

Do you see a move up or a move down tomorrow? Thanks

Uempel,

Are you saying the trend will be down starting tomorrow? Thanks

Very true Cobra,

But the negatives are AAPL, GS, Copper, $BKX, EURUSD, TLT (inverse to equities and is breaking out). If we were on our way up to new highs we should see an up day today...and today looks like the opposite.

Longer term a close below 1300 may mean the top in February was the top and this top could hold for months if not years. Conversely, if we now trade above Friday's highs we likely go over 1400 in the next few months. It is very rare to get a 2 to 3 month rally without any pullback during that period...

Very odd looking on a 15 min. chart. We have had only 1 up bar today (from the open of each bar)...from 10:15 to 10:30 on the ES. Plus the Nasdaq not doing so well today. Doesn't look like a rebound today...bailed on my swing trade...so I am sure it will go up now. Try again tomorrow.

Thanks Umpel for the great charts.

Cobra/others,

Wouldn't anything now trading back below the open be a bad sign for the bulls. Seems like decent gap downs that trade up 3-4 points or more from the open after the first hour should hold the open. Thoughts and thanks for a great board.

I understand Vix is a sentiment measure in reality, but why has it moved so little with a drop of 35 S&P points, when every other decline of this amount since 2009 has seen the Vix pop a lot more to the upside. Is it becoming somewhat meaningless, or is it saying this decline is over. It sure lo...

Using Tradestation consecutive downs indicator...here is what the S&P mini's have done dating back to 1998. Each are separate instances. The number of Down days in a row shows: 4 - 75 times 5 - 27 times 6 - 5 times 7 - 1 time 8 - 1 time 9 - 0 times Since the 2009 rally started we have had 11 ins...

Cobra, Seems as though everyone is in the bear camp short term, with views the market will rebound at 1275, 1290, 1300 or 1305 (among those bullish longer term). A few bullish longer term still think 1200 to 1220 is possible. Seems like 131.20ish shouldn't get taken out on a daily basis. Any indicat...

Seems like too many green half hour bars, not one red bar since 11:00 EST. Mean anything?

Cobra,

Likely up day tomorrow...last time the ES futures were down 4 days in a row was last August.

Cobra,

Headfake right now? Transports, Russell, and QQQ all weaker than the S&P.

Cobra,

Interesting how the half hour bars still have not closed below the lowest half hour close on the S&P on 4/4 at 1329.96 at 2:00 EST.

The hourly low bar is 1330.67 at 2:30 EST on 4/4.

Does this mean anything to you...or just noise.