02/02/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Begin with Algo from StockTiming.

Still now divergence, so guess more up.

Institutional distribution is increasing. The next weekend, we'll know if institutions are selling into the strength.

[Cobra]

AAII and II not much change, still optimistic but not extreme.

[Cobra]

Profitable Japanese Margin traders usually are not good sign.

[Cobra]

Investment managers are very bullish.

[Cobra]

An interesting reminder from a friend: Home builder sector not doing well today, despite the market up huge.

[Cobra]

The stock picks for the next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=815&p=116441#p116441

[loveleo]

An interesting reminder from a friend: Home builder sector not doing well today, despite the market up huge.

How do you interpret that? more up room for the market?

[Cobra]

An interesting reminder from a friend: Home builder sector not doing well today, despite the market up huge.

How do you interpret that? more up room for the market?

People may read it as a bearish sign because home builders were leaders. But I think one day doesn't mean anything, need see more days obviously.

[Cobra]

An interesting reminder from a friend: Home builder sector not doing well today, despite the market up huge.

How do you interpret that? more up room for the market?

All you need remember is the bottom line I said in 01/31 Market Outlook. Very simple.

I may provide lots of info for experienced traders with their own trading system, so sometimes you may feel too much info therefore don't know what to do. I'll provide a simple bottom line for every of my market outlook from now on, hopefully that could make things easier.

[Al_Dente]

“How to Lose $3 Million in 1 Second”
Lehman
Black-Scholes
LTCM
Myopic trader incentives
etc.
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/gue ... ne-second/

[Harapa]

This compendium of market indicators (VIXies, Momentum, Breadth, Straddles) says "All is well".
This bull has more to go!

[uempel]

This compendium of market indicators (VIXies, Momentum, Breadth, Straddles) says "All is well".
This bull has more to go!

I agree - but I closely monitoring 1523ish...

[Royal Flush]

Tim Knight was talking about this chart, his exact last words on it were "respect this chart"

[Harapa]

This compendium of market indicators (VIXies, Momentum, Breadth, Straddles) says "All is well".
This bull has more to go!

I agree - but I closely monitoring 1523ish...

3.png

5.png

That is just 10 points away!
I follow your charts/thoughts for some estimates of actual levels. Most of my indicators are only turning point identifiers.

[KeiZai]

BB san I see what u see

some charts

IWM : I cann't count the up leg as impulsive IMO they want to play irregular what is actually quite often in distribution phase...bear shakeout then the bulls rinse and repeat...this count can make a fool of everyone ....we will see...conclusion: if u are bear be cautious after 5waves down with divergence

Bigger picture is showing some resistance here, I like the weekly candle btw

abcde is speculation

Same with SPX two cycles have profit taking areas here

And my good old buddy aka "when old friends get together after a longer time"
If my count is correct (and it is ) we will see nice bounce soon (too bad looks like last one before downtrend resumes)

The ultimate conclusion: I am ready for some weakness then might back up to set ST top /for a month or so? who knows enjoy the w/e

howgh

[ocassional observer]

here area few more "reilable" top signs:
http://barrons.wsj.net/public/resources ... 234948.jpg
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/g ... s-Over.php

what i like about the second one is that the charts inside actually point to a 2014-2015 bottom, but the author still calls for a new secular bull market.

[Mr. BachNut]

My SKEW chart gave a correction warning on Friday, which suggests good chances for a tradeable decline starting sometime over the next two weeks.

The attached chart illustrates recent history with the signal.
The signal from Friday should be treated cautiously as two of the historical failed signals occurred during strong rallies at this time of year.
Furthermore, a lot of valid turn conditions have been blown through lately. So, this may be no different.
Nonetheless, if we see next week's trading break below last week's lows, this would give me some confidence to act.
If not, I'll stay long and float up with the bubble.

[Carlos]

I agree some posters here....

This 3 day chart and trendline show the 1520's as a likely top to look for.

[Al_Dente]

A different look at this rally, using the stockcharts.com “Percent Change” annotation tool and the 52 WEEK MA.

Q: How high do the rallys typically get above the 52week ma?
The blue percentage-difference tool shows the numbers. (These are rough numbers, as they “slip” a bit upon upload).
Using this one measure alone, you can clearly see that compared to the previous rallys, this one could go higher.
(Also interesting to compare the amplitude of the rallys in 2009; they were so much stronger than the more recent rallys).

Again, this is weekly, so it doesn’t catch the daily zig zags, but you can count all the MANY RED WEEKS there have been in the middle of each rally !

[Note: this is an “automatic” chart, tweaked.
Easy to recreate: below your chart > “ChartStyles” > Select > Pre-Defined Settings > “Chip’s Long-Term”
….. Hmmm, maybe I should have run this using $SPX instead of SPY.... Try it.]

[edited typos]

[Al_Dente]

For my taste, there is now just a bit too much chatter on the net about the “Grand Rotation” out of bonds.
So, contrarians will be watching bonds for a short-term bounce/flag.
Bond investors probably won’t give up the long-term rally in bonds without a battle.
Pimco’s Bill Gross sees scant evidence of this “rotation” as yet. He thinks cash/money market funds are fueling stocks.
I’m not reading much yet about margin debt as the ultimate driver behind stocks.
Anyway, here’s intraday TLT