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09/20/2021 Live Update

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Cobra
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09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

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Maybe rebound upon open as usual but this bear shall have legs, don't think it'd be another V shape reversal today. Let's see.

Big gap down below the Friday's low so likely a trend day either up or down (since I don't expect V reversal so it could be either downtrend day or range day).
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JFR
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by JFR »

ES daily. Hanging on the wire. Oops. He lost his grip. The white knuckles did not save him. Getting kind of scary. Nah.

2021-09-20_05-53-41.png
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JFR
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by JFR »

SPY 15. Dive. Dive. 'Nuff said. Wait a minute, it might be finding some support. Ha ha. More crash coming in half an hour?

2021-09-20_05-55-20.png
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BullBear52x
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by BullBear52x »

Gap down big like this will not fill in one trading day. ambush!!!!
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Cobra
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by Cobra »


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Cobra
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

It's a morning hourly hollow red
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Mr. BachNut
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by Mr. BachNut »

The NYMO cycle remains down.
We are near the Turn Zone but not there yet.
Given the price dump, I was a bit surprised by this.
Perhaps some dip buying at the open... I don't know.
In any case, NYMO could find a low around here (like February and March) or it could have more to go.

Price closed two open down gaps this morning and found no support at the middle keltner band and 50MA.
At this point, stops below the August low have been collected. The margin clerk may have a few calls to make yet though.
So, like NYMO, price could find a low around here but also could keep going. We shall see.
Lately, OPEX has been a location for lows.

Bears need to tag the lower keltner band to truly confirm a bearish bias.
Interestingly, the lower keltner (at 4269) is right around the July low and an open gap.

While the price action seems dramatic, VIX is considerably below the January, February, March and May highs.
The VIX futures curve remains in contango. Volatility sellers getting some squeeze but not a panic.
So, again the message is that this could be a quick shakeout (buy the dip) or the start of something bigger ( :shock: ).
Time will tell.

I am short SPX and R2K.
I have scaled out three profit units from SPX and two from R2K.
So, these are now runner positions with breakeven stops.
NYMO 092021.jpg
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Cobra
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

Breakdown would be more likely if bears can touch the blue line below. If breakdown in the next say 4 to 5 bars then it's a downtrend day. Rebound strong from here then it's a double bottom.
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BullBear52x
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by BullBear52x »

A breakdown, 4316 is in the card. that is a lot. but who knows? TA say it will. :ugeek: :ugeek: :ugeek:
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Cobra
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by Cobra »


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Cobra
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

A little late confirmed downtrend day. A down from open to close day has been rare so a downtrend day doesn't mean as much as an uptrend day anyway.
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Trades w 2 Cats
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by Trades w 2 Cats »

Just a reminder-assuming you all read the thoughts from Spot Gamma and Charlie McElligot up at Zerohedge this morning- IF they keep buying puts it will waterfall. If they stop the vix will drop. The usual suspects who will sell volatility are sidelined until the Fed meeting.

2nd issue is the new stimey bills are hung up in Congress. Sunday talk show dampened down expectations pushing back into October and pulling back from 3.5 trillion welfare program.

Going to be an interesting couple of months.
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BullBear52x
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by BullBear52x »

Well, 4316, what can I say? haha. greed kills.
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BullBear52x
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by BullBear52x »

Tomorrow is another day, and I am expecting a dead cat bounce any time soon from here or tomarrooooo.
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BullBear52x
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by BullBear52x »

Chart for the road: Don't fight the FED. haha, welcome Wednesday bounce. Peace!
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Cobra
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

The rebound probably will touch the EMA20, watch for EMA short setup.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

save for later:
MS’s Mike Wilson this morning: growing risk of 20% decline (he’s been saying -10% to -20% for many months…. His clients were mad bc he missed the rally)
"... Change your behavior. Don’t buy the first dip. Be patient. Give it two to three months..."
If I’m wrong, PRICE ACTION will tell me, also possible china stimmy, also possible FED no taper...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Djg6UzLfjRM
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Mr. BachNut
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by Mr. BachNut »

NYMO starting to tag the turn zone.
VIX futures starting to show some backwardation.
Another down gap closed.
Now things are cooking...
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Al_Dente
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

PLEASE IGNORE ALL VERTICAL LINES
$BPSPX has shown us three buying opportunities this year (green circles)
When it turns back up (MUST convincingly turn back up above 55) it may give us a buying opportunity signal
Daily
920bpspx.png.jpg
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Al_Dente
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Re: 09/20/2021 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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