05/19/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Testing the previous low then rebound, let's see whether bulls can make a double bottom here, 50% chances.

[JFR]

ES daily. Huge bear candle Wednesday. Down again today, all the way to a support level at 3854.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes. A wild, roller coaster ride. Down to S1, where it finds some support.

[JFR]

SPY 15. Down. Down. And down. Getting a little bounce from the bulls a couple of hours ago.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Lots of conflict today in the signals. Big pressure down. But the bulls are swimming upstream, finding support at S1. Dangerous, tricky scalping.

[Al_Dente]

Melvin Capital Management, the once high-flying hedge fund that lost billions of dollars after its bearish wagers were caught up in a Reddit-fueled rally, told investors that it plans to wind down funds [aka selling] and return cash to investors
[Bloomberg]

[Al_Dente]

Worst in the SPX at the moment
CSCO (on earnings)
HOG
PRNewswire/ -- Yesterday, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) took the decision to suspend all vehicle assembly and shipments (excluding LiveWire) for a two-week period. This decision, taken out of an abundance of caution, is based on information provided by a third-party supplier to Harley-Davidson late on Tuesday (5/17) concerning a regulatory compliance matter relating to the supplier's component part.

[Al_Dente]

Odd that staples (XLP) made a new low
(day two below 200sma)

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Wild action at the open. Usually good to avoid.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/05 ... ay-update/

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Wild action. Ride 'em, Cowboy.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Very, very wild action. Taking a break ...

[Al_Dente]

Options traders are buying a few calls, but I surmise they think it's just a dead cat
Obviously if (IF, WHEN) bears start covering en-masse (squeeze) it will be a game changer, and call buying will spike

[Cobra]

Maybe we had the range high and low now.

[Cobra]

Maybe the low was in for today. This bull shall have legs.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Have you ever seen the video's of the hurricane coming ashore in the dark where every couple of minutes there is a bright flash from electrical transformers blowing up? Masa Son's Softbank, Tiger international and the tiger cubs with Melvin Capital yesterday. Plus I imagine a whole lot of smaller funds playing the same game. I am thinking their liquidations are a big part of the sudden drops. Not so sure we will see the grand capitulation move as more traditional funds are heavily hedged.

Confident the Phd's in the Mariners Eccles building are glued to their screens watching market liquidity. If Chair Powell is forced to intervein then the Feds credibility goes away and the current rising value of the dollar reverses putting us into a real bad situation with the debt.

The prediction had been for a short squeeze on Friday Op Ex. Not sure if this Target sell off changes that or not. It implies that the market thought the consumer was solid and the huge increases in gas and food were not real. Thinking they were all listening to cable news for their analysis.

[Al_Dente]

"Fed's George Says Central Bank Watching Stocks, Confirms Fed Ok With Lower Prices"
George: "It's hard to know how much will be needed" in terms of tightening financial conditions
but she described the recent activity as the "beginning" of tightening financial conditions.
zh: anyone hoping for a quick bounce in stocks here is literally "fighting the Fed"

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:06 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/05 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

The pullback should be bought, likely there's another leg up.

[Cobra]

Lower high (therefore the rebound was over) or not, wait and see.