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05/21/2022 Weekend Update

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Cobra
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05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Down 7 weeks in a row, the next week down 2 out of 2 (this is not a dividend adjusted data).
3.png

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Al_Dente
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

5/20 SentimenTrader
Wednesday marked the third session in ten days when less than 10% of NYSE volume flowed into advancing securities.That's enough to rank among the most clustered bouts of severe selling in 60 years.
We already know that sentiment is washed out, but pessimism became even more widespread during Wednesday's session...
The Backtest Engine shows that the S&P 500 still lost more than 10% when it was triggered during the pandemic, but otherwise, returns were excellent.
Going back to when we started calculating this over 20 years ago, it mainly triggered during short-term bottoms, but with the notable exceptions of the waterfall declines during July 2002 and October 2008...
https://mailchi.mp/sentimentrader/a-big ... a87ef92ec1
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

EXPECTATIONS ABOUT THE "FED PUT"
A recent survey by BofA Global Research showed fund managers now expect the Fed to step in at 3,529 on the SPX, compared with expectations of 3,700 in February. Such a drop would constitute a 26% decline from the SPX’s Jan. 3 closing high.
"The Fed has bigger fish to fry and that's the inflation problem," [said a random analyst du-jour, who is increasing his cash levels].
BofA’s survey showed cash allocations at a two-decade high.
There have been signs of resilient sentiment. For example, the VIX is elevated but below levels it reached during previous major selloffs.
[Reuters]
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

S&P-500 YTD
Screenshot 2022-05-20 171737.jpg
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Bulls will need this Neuralyzer to erase the memory of today's lower low
NEURALYZER jpg.jpg
NEURALYZER jpg.jpg (30.25 KiB) Viewed 1349 times
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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JFR
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by JFR »

SPY daily. PnF. Testing down, on a breakdown. All-in short? Nope. All-in long? Nope.

Screenshot_20220521_002825.jpg
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jademann
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by jademann »

A nice bounce between S1 and S2, that's all it was.
Look where next month's S2 is:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p ... 3260462966
My comments were dictated to me by homie the clown
koolblue
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by koolblue »

LONG TERM.png
8-)
jademann
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by jademann »

Kool, why do think the bear ends in july? A typical bear lasts 9 months and this one should be worse than an average one because the FED pumped for way too many years. I am old enough to remember how difficult And long it was to stop inflation. FED printing caused it.
My comments were dictated to me by homie the clown
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JFR
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by JFR »

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sello ... od=markets
Screenshot_20220521_202524.jpg
Definitions, labels and numbers give context. This trader does not treat them as carved in stone. Bear market? Sure. Or not. No matter. The market is down big time in 2022. Chart traders see that, and trade accordingly.

MarketWatch has opinions. Here are some excerpts from an article ...
The S&P 500 averted a bear market Friday, trimming losses to finish flat after trading solidly below a key threshold. But history shows that when a bear arrives, it tends to stick around awhile.

The large-cap U.S. benchmark SPX, +0.01% ended the session with a gain of less than a point at 3,901.36 after trading as low as 3,810.32. A close below 3,837.25 would mark a 20% pullback from the S&P 500’s Jan. 3 record finish, meeting the traditional definition of a bear market, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.03% erased a 617 point loss to end the day at 31,261.90. A finish below 29,439.72 would put the blue-chip gauge into a bear market.
To be sure, many investors and analysts see that 20% definition as an overly formal if not outdated metric, arguing that stocks have been behaving in bear-like fashion for weeks.

And note, that if the S&P 500 were to close below the threshold in the coming days, the start of the bear market would be backdated to the Jan. 3 peak. A bear market is declared over once the S&P 500 has risen 20% from a low.

OK, so what does history say about what happens once a bear market begins?
As baseball Hall of Fame player, Yogi Berra, said: ''Predictions are hard, especially about the future.'' Ha ha.

im-548260.png
There have been 17 bear —- or near-bear—- markets since World War II, said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, in a Wednesday note. Generally speaking, the S&P 500 has fallen further once a bear market begins. And, he said, bear markets have, on average, lasted about a year, producing an average peak-to-trough decline of just shy of 30%.
Huge, long-lasting bull market runs out of steam. Scheis happens in the world. Markets contract. Normal, although seemingly more extreme, at this time.

Play short. Play some long. Play short term. Play the charts, as they reflect what is happening.

Just in my opinion.
Charts posted are not recommendations. They are just a sharing of information.
koolblue
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by koolblue »

WEEKLY.png
jademann wrote:Kool, why do think the bear ends in july? A typical bear lasts 9 months and this one should be worse than an average one because the FED pumped for way too many years. I am old enough to remember how difficult And long it was to stop inflation. FED printing caused it.
jademann
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by jademann »

Kool, thanks for reply. I thought you were saying this was the final low whereas I suspected it was not. I agree with your timing analysis for an important low. (although when many people think something will happen it can sometimes not happen).
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VIX Timing.JPG
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jademann
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by jademann »

The final low might be one of these. The problem with this view is I get nervous trigger finger with holding any long bull day positions. :D
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Al_Dente
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

After talking about that 38.2% retracement level for many weeks, SPY finally hit it this week.
The next down target would be 50% retracement near $345 which also happens to be the target (pink) for the Head and Shoulders.
Note the selling volume is abating. Bears need MORE red selling volume not LESS.
Two things I'm sure of:
1) It won't get down to that 50%/H&S target without a bounce.
2) I could be wrong

[ADD: ps: the NDX already hit 50% retracement]
Screenshot 2022-05-22 091930.jpg
Last edited by Al_Dente on Sun May 22, 2022 12:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
koolblue
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by koolblue »

koolblue wrote:
WEEKLY.png
jademann wrote:Kool, why do think the bear ends in july? A typical bear lasts 9 months and this one should be worse than an average one because the FED pumped for way too many years. I am old enough to remember how difficult And long it was to stop inflation. FED printing caused it.
Heres an interesting statistic i just ran across! July is 7 months! Also, note that 23.8%= about 3680, and im expecting around 3525 " There are bad bear markets, and then there are less bad bear markets. What distinguishes the two is whether or not the economy enters a
recession
.

"Should the economy avoid a recession, the bear market bottoms at 23.8% and lasts just over seven months on average," Detrick said. But bear markets get worse during recessions, with an average decline of 34.8%, and lasting for an average of nearly 15 months "... courtesy of Business Insider :o 8-)
"
jademann
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by jademann »

Kool, another long term chart I use is this one, hope the link works.
I definitely think we will touch the middle of the channel at 3620 at some point, and I also think we eventually deserve to touch the bottom of the channel at 2750 also..
It really all depends on inflation and in my experience a 9% inflation rate requires MUCH pain. Someone at the FED got very happy with the punch bowl unfortunately.

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/%5EGSPC ... J0In19fX0-
My comments were dictated to me by homie the clown
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Al_Dente
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

ALMANAC: The week before Memorial Day:
DJIA is the weakest, up 26 of the past 51 years and a paltry 0.01% average gain.
S&P is a bit better, up 62.7% of the time with an average gain of 0.2%.
NASDAQ is up 64.7% of the time, averaging a gain of 0.29%.
But the Russell 2000 small caps take the lead ...up 74.4% of the time with an average gain of 0.6%.
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/6848 ... morial-day
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
koolblue
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Re: 05/21/2022 Weekend Update

Post by koolblue »

Jademan, i agree and your link works fine
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