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05/28/2022 Weekend Update

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Cobra
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05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Up 1 week, the next week has 79% chances to make a higher high so more up.
2.png

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cletus
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by cletus »

There is an unfilled Dow futures gap dow by the recent lows, so 100% chance this rally fails. Sorry to disappoint bottom pickers.
te_fern
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by te_fern »

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374
This is not investment or trade advice.
jademann
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by jademann »

My comments were dictated to me by homie the clown
cletus
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by cletus »

NYMO hit a multi year high yesterday- almost always leads to some kind of pullback even in the most bullish scenario.
koolblue
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by koolblue »

daily.png
8-) :roll: Ok here my 2 cents...lol
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Cobra
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

koolblue wrote:
daily.png
8-) :roll: Ok here my 2 cents...lol

You made the chart? Is it possible not to use capital char as they're really hard to read :geek:

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koolblue
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by koolblue »

Of course i make my own charts! Thats what i trade off of. Am i doing something wrong?
jademann
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by jademann »

Kool nice chart. Agree with the channel however it might not get that high before the fear of the next 0.5% sets in which is mid June I believe..
My comments were dictated to me by homie the clown
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Al_Dente
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Rare buy signal on the NYMO weekly
Screenshot 2022-05-28 110925.jpg
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

We also have a rare Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator buy signal. This one is off by one day so it is not technically correct, but it is the nearest we've come to a Zweig buy in a couple years.
[Zweig Breadth Thrust: any time this indicator thrusts from below 41 to above 60 in under 10 days, the market will be significantly higher 18 months later....The basic idea is that a sudden flip from really negative breadth to really positive numbers can be a sign of the initiation of a strong new rally.]
Screenshot 2022-05-28 112438.jpg
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
cletus
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by cletus »

Current NYMO I have at 347, on of the highest readings in history, with 1) no accumulation days on the rally 2) not a huge rally (yes a decent one). If you think of this as a bear market, I don't have data for 2000-2002 but in the 2007 to 2008 bear market there was further downside on such high readings. High readings during bull markets will lead to some consolidation or a small pullback. The key will be HOW the market corrects in response to this super high reading. The positive view is that these high readings always meant a key bottom was in or close to in, so longer term investors can sit back and relax. Maybe have some cash not yet deployed in case.
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NYMO.png
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Al_Dente
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

ps: those are both LONG TERM indicators

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Cobra
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

koolblue wrote:Of course i make my own charts! Thats what i trade off of. Am i doing something wrong?
Nothing wrong, just a little difficult to read capital chars so I wonder whether you could not always use capitals?

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Trades w 2 Cats
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Trades w 2 Cats »

Consensus seems to be follow through with the next couple of well telegraphed rate hikes then a pause in September (based on FOMC chatter) as the economy plunges. Market expects a monster rally when they announce the pause.

As for me I see this as a squeeze to clear the market before the next leg down. Most shorted index up 12.5% with the market up around 3.5. Junk bond index straight up. Consumer spending straight down. The Fed has not even started quantitative tightening. These rate increases will be lucky to keep real rates close to -2.00%. Sidenote from interview with Steven Roach. Average real rate during powell's term in office -1.95%. The Fed people meet Nassim Taleb's definition of genius but idiots.

Average middle class family is down 3.5% in real wages this year. Summer power bills are supposed to be up 30 to 40% when you aren't in a black out. Not even talking gas and groceries. Looks like the wheels are coming off the bus. But what do I know, I'm just a day trader. :twisted: :lol: :lol: :lol:
cletus
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by cletus »

Bulls need reminding that QT begins in June.

"Citigroup strategist Matt King said liquidity flows are far more important, and have better correlation with equities, than real yields. He estimates that every $1 trillion of QT will equate to a decline of roughly 10% in stocks over the next 12 months or so."

We can assume then that the market believes QT stops after $2 trillion. If it extends past that the market is mispriced.

Don’t fight the Fed…to the downside either!
koolblue
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by koolblue »

hourly.png
:o :roll: :lol: Fun stuff!
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Al_Dente
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

5min, red arrows
Middle Panel: ADV finally pulled back down
Bottom Panel: last time VIX was here, it was an interim top on SPX
Grain-of-salt.... both just strengthens the case for a pullback...we'll see
Screenshot 2022-05-29 095359.jpg
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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BullBear52x
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

From "It is what it is Department" What a strong reversal week that got everyone wonder are we bottom for real? my answer is NO. Last time I checked market doesn't care what I think :D based on a daily trend following setup we are now entering sell the rip zone until this sell fails will the bulls regain a buy dip coupon on the daily time frame. keep it simple, first thing first.sell signal triggers when RSI < 70
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A look at New High and New Low index. from the start of this correction since December, Jan and Apr peaked, we barely brought up HL index of Nasdaq to positive side only to tank back down to new LL. today if we peaked here it will be more weaker than the last two, so I don't see this bottoming is sustained without a pull back and slowly created new high in all major indices.
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Intraday trade: Friday we end the day with a positive price action. I am expecting a strong trade to continue until we have a negative price action day. only price pays at the end of day, What to look to on Tuesday or even a Monday night futures trade. only a trade below 38.2% will get me to think the reversal may start, other then that no sign of weakness to call to beside it is overbought. Good luck and trade well, Time frame of a trade is important. if you are a trader, trade it don't hold on to it. Peace!
3.PNG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
koolblue
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Re: 05/28/2022 Weekend Update

Post by koolblue »

Great stuff ,BullBear52x! i have Monday as a green day but Tues down . Im quite sure tat we are going to see my old friend 4126 again soon :D
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