06/27/2022 Live Update

[BullBear52x]

"Someone with a lot of money to spend has taken a bearish stance on NVIDIA
https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearc ... LNGTH&sb=1

good info, once people start to hedge or buy put options that's when the MM have sell futures, especially night time. so much call buyers lately so they buy futures at night of course.

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/four- ... =home-page

Do you like scary movies? How about scary headlines? Ha ha

Four of the five fingers of death are squeezing world output, economist warns

Published: June 27, 2022 at 7:42 a.m. ET

By Steve Goldstein

One of Quentin Tarantino’s favorite movies is entitled the “Five Fingers of Death,” a 1972 Hong Kong feature that popularized the kung fu genre.

Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, says, at the moment, four of the five fingers of death are squeezing the global economy. Weinberg says he expects a substantial recession starting this year, running into early next year.

The four fingers squeezing the world economy are the spike in energy and food prices, central bank tightening, the interruption of energy supplies to Europe and frothy financial markets.

The rise in energy and commodity prices can be seen in the deteriorating trade balances of Germany, Japan and the U.K., he said. Weinberg also says interest rates will end up a lot higher than where central bankers expect they will. And Russia has cut back shipments of natural gas to Germany. “An embargo of gas shipments from Russia would kill Germany’s economy and take out much of the Euroland economy, too,” he says.

Weinberg says sterling GBPUSD, 0.07% will be at risk when the latest current account data from the U.K. gets released on Thursday. He expects a £46 billion deficit will be announced.

As for frothy markets, they’ve already started to correct: The S&P 500 SPX, -0.05% this year has dropped 18%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.206% has surged 163 basis points, while bitcoin BTCUSD, -2.94% has lost 54% over its value.

The only “finger” that isn’t squeezing, so far, are supply-chain gaps in wake of China’s lockdown policies. “We are going to wait and see if exports fall off in the months ahead. It is possible that goods shipped during the lockdowns were merely cleared out of inventories, not newly produced,” he said.

1 Energy and food prices

2 central bank tightening

3 interruption of energy supplies to Europe

4 frothy financial markets

5 supply-chain gaps re China's lockdown policies

Worried about a recession? Nope. Watching? Yes. Recession later this year? Maybe. There are lots of counter-balances.

For those at the top of the food chain, seemingly no worries.

For those at the bottom: always worries. But there seems to be lots of jobs at the bottom end. People seem to have money to spend.

Problems? Of course. To name a few: pandemic, invasion of Ukraine, China at odds with the Western world, political chaos in the USA, rising prices, people living beyond their means, people just getting by month to month, overuse of credit cards, personal bankruptcies, drug use, both recreational and prescribed, climate change.

Is that enough? Ha ha. Is another 1929 just around the corner? This trader does not think so.

And, Hey, the markets will still be operating for us day traders, I think. Ha ha.

[BullBear52x]

Market will face with more gaps in days ahead.

[Daniel]

JNK fresh lod
..but still a daily inside bar. And still within that controlling wide-range bar of June 15.

Credit spreads are what bond market traders always keep their eyes on.

[JFR]

SPY 5 minutes. Price action.

[Al_Dente]

DAILY
Struggling at the 20ma
But noteworthy is a volume pop on the nas (bottom panel)

[Daniel]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/four- ... mist-warns

Do you like scary movies? How about scary headlines? Ha ha

That image is a treasure, JFR. Yet another sentiment-sign of a possible significant bottom here--along with the other recent washout signs on various indicators. I've saved the jpeg. It's right up there with those classic doomy-gloomy Barron's covers that marked actionable bottoms. Thanks.

The market has factored in all these concerns. It's why price recently contracted so far below key moving averages. It's what we can't see, that's what we're looking at.

[JFR]

ABBV daily. Still slim pickings for longs on my scans. Here is one possible one. Health Care.

Information only. Not a recommendation. Not holding at this time.

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/four- ... mist-warns

Do you like scary movies? How about scary headlines? Ha ha

That image is a treasure, JFR. Yet another sentiment-sign of a possible significant bottom here--along with the other recent washout signs on various indicators. I've saved the jpeg. It's right up there with those classic doomy-gloomy Barron's covers that marked actionable bottoms. Thanks.

The market has factored in all these concerns. It's why price recently contracted so far below key moving averages. It's what we can't see, that's what we're looking at.

Ha ha. You are welcome, Daniel. Always trying to lighten the day.

[Daniel]

The VIX is currently holding just below a confluence of its 50day sma and its 20day sma.

Since I posted that, SPX has moved to near its lod, but the VIX is almost exactly where it was. This is a "no-fear" pullback, despite the magnitude of the actual pullback of the NDX and QQQ from the strong NDX overnite highs. And this has been a leading sector in the current rally, and the first to trade over the 20day.

[BullBear52x]

Gap-ville, if we closed here or lower we will have a negative price action day. if so, gap down is to be expected. will see how we closed today.

[JFR]

SPY 5 minutes. Price action.

[Mr. BachNut]

Not the usual BachNut fare today.
It seems possible that some kind of low has been put in and maybe some kind of summer rally may be in the offing. I don't know, just a possibility. We shall see.

I posted this chart late last year noting that the negative RSI divergence was suggesting a move to the two year (104 week) moving average might be in the cards.
Mission accomplished. Now what?

In LITTLE Bear markets since 2009, the index has found its way back above the 104 MA after a few weeks, usually with the help of a friendly neighborhood central banker.
On the other hand, in BIG Bear markets, this moving average has turned into resistance and has turned down.
A faster moving average, such as the 50 week exponential has also demonstrated to be resistance in BIG Bears.
There is an intriguing confluence when these two MAs crossover in BIG Bears. See black triangles on the chart.

Currently, these moving averages range from SPX 4071 to SPX 4232.
Will the index rally up to those levels in the next few weeks? I haven't got a clue.
If it does though and then reverses hard, I will be inclined to say we are in a BIG Bear.

I am long an SPX runner position having scaled out two profit units.

[Cobra]

Rebound from the day low, so double bottom? The line below might not hold another test if the rebound fails.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:40 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/06 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/06 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Tuesday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374