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Consolidation overnight, breakdown is more likely.
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1) H&S bottom pattern looks canceled because this pullback started much too early for that bull case.
2) Maybe a retest of the low to gap fill but still don't think any major leg down has started
3) Holiday seasonality is now the bull's best chance to rally back up to fill the gap at 397
4) Dip buying is still the higher odds trade, or holding existing longs
5) A big up day is not required for bulls but an up day really needs to be in place by the close to start to push higher again, otherwise I assume a full re-test of the lows has begun
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6/28 Charlie McElligott, Nomura
Everyone Is Waiting For This "Final" Shoe To Drop Before The All-Clear Signal......... negative earnings revision “clearing” event, is the "final" shoe to drop...a flush down to 3300-3400 is the perceived “all-clear”
Yesterday [6/27] saw the resumption of the “recession trade” in US Equities: 1) Energy 2) Utilities 3) Healthcare 4) Staples, which tells you that the said economic contraction concerns are driving the ongoing “Defensive” “Low Risk” ... posture.
6/28 How Goldman suggests you position for the coming earnings crash: We continue to recommend investors focus on stocks where they can be relatively confident in the forward trajectory of earnings, including firms with stable growth and the Health Care sector, which has grown earnings in each of the last several recessions."
[NOTE BOTH FORECASTS ARE BASED ON FUNDAMENTALS - earnings will be bad]
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Cletus close notes - a little early but I've seen enough at this point:
1) Bulls did not really do much in terms of reversals. A re-test down to 3,650, although it's hard to believe with pessimism so high, appears to be approaching a higher odds scenario
2) Retail pessimism is through the roof so I absolutely would not under any circumstances try a short position here. If we re-test the lows, I'd be thinking double bottom. Holding long positions here.
cletus wrote:Cletus close notes - a little early but I've seen enough at this point:
1) Bulls did not really do much in terms of reversals. A re-test down to 3,650, although it's hard to believe with pessimism so high, appears to be approaching a higher odds scenario
2) Retail pessimism is through the roof so I absolutely would not under any circumstances try a short position here. If we re-test the lows, I'd be thinking double bottom. Holding long positions here.
best shot for a down move here in sometime imo, no one really hedged. gaps stayin open for this long unusual, odd.
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