08/17/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

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The pullback overnight was strong so maybe more.

[JFR]

SPY 15 minutes. Good move up Tuesday. Then the sharp move down, continuing today.

[koolblue]

[JFR]

ES daily. Three push up. Now at resistance at the 4300 level, which goes back to May and to March.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes. Steps up, and a sharp move down, through the Pivot, and through S1. "Escalator up. Elevator down."

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Sliding down the slope. Profit taking. A pause at 4300 on the daily. Although it could get worse, and become a pullback on the daily.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Finding some support. We will see ...

[koolblue]

The hourly chart is now on a sell signal ,the first one since Aug9. That was good for 75 handles (small compared to `normal` signals.) If history holds then 4115-75 is around 4240.

[cletus]

Bulls have a problem. Cletus is not bullish anymore. That is their problem.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Poking its nose above S1, clear of the EMA 20, and then the sharp move down.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/08 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

It's a morning hourly hollow red and this is the 3rd time, so I don't expect it turns up again like the previous 2 times so down day?

[Al_Dente]

The bulls just kept raising their stops as they kept getting higher lows.
UNTIL TODAY when they got that lower low on the open.
.... they got stopped out (your stop may vary)

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. A slow train to nowhere, sputtering along.

Taking a break, back later ...

[Al_Dente]

Rising wedge broke down, but it's not a great performing pattern
https://thepatternsite.com/risewedge.html

[Al_Dente]

Puts

[te_fern]

High Yield is struggling today but hasn't broken through the lower MA line...

[cletus]

An article worth reading to anyone who has "suddenly" become a market bull 15% off the lows (rather than at the lows):

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/https ... -continues

For more detail on why QT is expected to accelerate, not decline:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-ba ... 1659731026

When the central bank began QT in June, it set out to partially unwind roughly $4.5 trillion in quantitative easing, or QE, that was conducted in response to the pandemic. The Fed started by letting up to $30 billion in Treasuries and $17.5 billion in mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, roll off its balance sheet, as opposed to reinvesting the proceeds. Starting next month, those caps will rise to $60 billion and $35 billion, respectively, meaning the pace of balance-sheet runoff is about to double. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has suggested that QT would go on for two to 2½ years, implying that the Fed’s $9 trillion balance sheet would shrink by roughly $2.5 trillion.

[Al_Dente]

High Yield is struggling today but hasn't broken through the lower MA line...

nice chart boss thanks

[Al_Dente]

The big three: