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03/25/2023 Weekend Update

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Cobra
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03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Up 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 54% chances to close up, 75% chances to make a higher high.
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te_fern
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by te_fern »

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377
This is not investment or trade advice.
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JFR
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by JFR »

SPY daily.
2023-03-24_22-21-27.png
Reading the chart ...

* Bollinger "River" flat, at its mid-point.

* EMAs 20, 50, 100 flat.

* Bullish candle.

* Reaching up to the EMA 20.

* 10 days up from a bottom.

* Trend up since March 13.

* Volume lighter today than a few days ago.

* MACD crossover up but very weak, and beneath zero.

* Histogram at crossover point.

* Sto flattening after rising to 50.

Conclusion: No man's land. Neither up nor down. No swing trades off the daily for SPY and ES, et cetera. Day trades and scalps only.
Charts posted are not recommendations. They are just a sharing of information.
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JFR
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by JFR »

Alternative markets daily.

DBC down.

GLD up.

IYR down.

SPYG breaking even for the time period.

SPYV down.

TLT up most recently.

USO down.

UUP down most recently.

2023-03-24_22-34-37.png
Charts posted are not recommendations. They are just a sharing of information.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

FOLLOW UP on my charts showing TECH leading big:
"Within equities, a narrow market is a dangerous market ...If October was the low, then this is about the time you get a gut check... You can't have a lot of bank failures... If this is ring-fenced within the bank sector, that would be a positive development... also low sentiment is positive..." [NDR, Ned Davis Research analyst]

I love his term: "ring-fenced". Pretty self-explanatory, but I still checked investopedia on that one.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Index YTD Performance
$QQQ Nasdaq +16.75%
$SPY S&P 500 +3.97%
$IWM Russell 2000 -1.47%
$DIA Dow Jones -2.72%
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

ROUNDUP:
Ryan Detrich: Watch XLF: any positive news could potentially trigger a run [SQUEEZE] in the markets.... Bottom line, impressive resiliency in the face of a barrage of bad news.

Jeremy Siegel: bearishness and apocalyptic predictions outsell optimism.

Lance Roberts: Despite a banking crisis, the market rallied for a second week, triggering buy signals ... Market is setting up for a decent rotation from the safety trade (bonds, gold, tech and communciations) to laggards. Good time to take profits in the winners for now.
A MACD confirming “buy signal” suggests the bulls regained control... Furthermore, the market defended the 200-DMA... despite the negative headlines.

NorthmanTrader: Who's getting bailed out this weekend?
FED 3/22: WE WILL KEEP REDUCING THE BALANCE SHEET AS PLANNED.
FED 3/24 Increases balance sheet by another $93B during the week for a total of almost 400B in 2 weeks... The more they're shouting the banks are stable while bank stocks keep crashing the less credibility they have by the minute... They now have no choice but to back up their words with significant action & prove stability otherwise this could get really ugly fast.

3/23 Jeffrey Gundlach: "I predict the Federal Reserve will be cutting rates substantially soon....I am wrong about 30% of the time so factor that into any decision making."

Goldman: YTD new buyback actual flow activity running substantially lower than last year's YTD volumes"...
GS: "American households will sell $750 billion of stocks this year in the first annual drop in demand since 2018, thanks to higher bond yields and lower savings"

Jesse Felder: 'When banks fall badly relative to everyone else, the broader market tends to decline. That's because banks matter to the economy. When they're in trouble, it's much harder for anyone else to make a profit.'
Screenshot 2023-03-25 114646.png
Urban Camel: 3/24 [Rarely seen indicator, with non-farm employment in red]:
"Feb truck tonnage up a 3rd month in a row. It's at the second highest level since the Aug 2019 ATH. Trucks carry 70% of US freight. This looks nothing like 2008"
Screenshot 2023-03-25 114915.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
te_fern
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by te_fern »

Thanks AD, nice roundup summary!!
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te_fern
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by te_fern »

Watching the turns in the 15 min (MA lines)....
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BullBear52x
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

From "It is what it is department" Banks!!!Gone from "too big to fail" to "it is now illegal for banks to fail", Fed is behind you. ;) lack of confidence is bad for the market.

Only price pays, we were in trading range since December, as you can see the range Highs and range lows during this time frame, just eyeball it you can see it's roughly 1 std on either side. we are trading on the mean again or value area profile.
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Internals are bearish.
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Swing setup is on the sell, we got the box, for that, Monday will be easy to trade for intraday, makes or breaks. keep it simple.
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Intraday: Friday closed with positive price action, up Friday should follow through on Monday, but if it's not, it will be very bearish in week to come. at this point short term price action is the only game in town. good luck all. Peace!
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Last edited by BullBear52x on Sat Mar 25, 2023 4:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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te_fern
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by te_fern »

Junk looks a little weaker...
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BullBear52x
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

I show this chart before back in the Tech/Semi-Conductors Hey days. now it still kind na stands true, weaken USD is good for Global revenues for the Tech companies, so far it has not de-couple on that view. Not yet.
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BullBear52x
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

Weekly $BKX. it's badly oversold, a week histogram turns up it will be a screaming buy.
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One day doesn't make a trend, daily chart for investors, who said you can not time the marker? lies. all lies. haha.
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JFR
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by JFR »

Another view.

SPY daily, Three Line Break.

I think traders can almost always find a chart to support their view, whether they are bullish or bearish. In much the same way that economists can take the same statistics to support their differing views.

This trader does not really care if the market is going up or down. With a qualifier: I certainly don't want a free-fall collapse like 1929. Nor do I want a parabolic move up. Smoothness without huge spikes is appreciated.

Three Line Break takes the chop out. I like my swing trades to be in line with it. It is a slow moving train, and I like it very much, mostly as a confirmation.

Longer term down. Mid term up. Short term down.

Just in my opinion.

Screenshot_20230326_080349.jpg
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Al_Dente
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Troubled European banks, 1 month performance
Screenshot 2023-03-26 103233.png
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Al_Dente
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Strength in megacaps cloaks weakness elsewhere. Measures of market breadth have turned more negative, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 (SPXEW), a proxy for the average stock in the benchmark index, is down over 5% since March.
As megacaps have rallied, some indicators of breadth, which technical analysts view as gauges of broad market health, have darkened recently.
The number of new 52-week lows on the NYSE and Nasdaq was on pace to eclipse new highs for three straight weeks, a reversal after new highs had topped new lows almost every week to start 2023
Further, the percentage of industry groups above their 10-week moving averages has plummeted from 87% in early February to 7% in the latest week... We need to see better participation if the indexes are going to be able to sustain the next leg higher.
Nevertheless, some investors are bullish on megacap stocks.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall ... 023-03-24/
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
tsf
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Re: 03/25/2023 Weekend Update

Post by tsf »

https://stockcharts.com/articles/tradin ... -b-43.html

The NASDAQ Is Eyeing A Major Breakout Level
Tom Bowley | March 26, 2023 at 11:53 AM

Ultimately, breaking out above the August 2022 high represents the key level to reverse the downtrend that began in early-January 2022. I like to use longer-term charts to determine whether we're currently trending higher or lower, and right now the downtrend is firmly in place:

The numbers on the above chart identify the lower highs and lower lows that remain in play. Until we clear that August high, the price chart remains bearish. The problem is that if you wait until the long-term price chart turns bearish in a cyclical bear market (January through October 2022), you ride at least half, if not more, of the downtrend. The same holds true when bottoms form. If we're waiting for price confirmation - clearing overhead price resistance a little below 340 - we will have missed the first 30% or more of the move higher.

That's why I do what I do. The price chart only tells us so much. We must be aware of the "under the surface" signals taking place to truly understand the likelihood of a market advance of decline. Despite the clear downtrend on the chart above, I'm VERY BULLISH and have been since June 2022.
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