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04/01/2023 Weekend Update

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Cobra
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04/01/2023 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Up 3 weeks in a row, the next week has 54% chances to close up, 81% chances to make a higher high.
3.png

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tsf
Posts: 527
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 7:49 am

Re: 04/01/2023 Weekend Update

Post by tsf »

Thanks, Cobra.

From my readings:


FOR THE BULLS

Public Chart List:
Zweig Breadth Trust (NYADVW:NYTOT weekly) signaled a buy
Zweig Breadth Thrust Continuation !BINYBTCD moves above 0.615

StockCharts Articles
byTom Bowley, Mary Ellen McGonagle, Mish Schneider


FOR THE BEARS

Bulkowski's Blog
https://thepatternsite.com/Blog.html#P26
Monday 4/3/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead (Down)
potential H&S for S&P 500
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JFR
Posts: 10127
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Re: 04/01/2023 Weekend Update

Post by JFR »

SPY daily.

Reading my chart ...
2023-04-01_03-11-14.png
CTM up.

Bollinger pushing the outside of the envelope, up. But the body of the Bollinger is still flat.

Elder bars. Up.

Hella bullish bar today.

EMAs 50 and 100 flat.

EMA 20 turning up.

Trendline since March 13 is up.

Volume very strong at the bottom in mid-March, and again one week ago, and today.

MACD crossover up, above zero. Signal line up, but beneath zero. Histogram up and above zero.

Sto up strong.

The price action on the way up was choppy, except for the last three days.

Close 409.39 today. 416.72 is the high of February 2nd. Not a lot of room left for the move up. It is almost there, and could even be reached in a day or two. And I do not think it will go busting through resistance.

Conclusion for this trader ... The odds favor bullish action for SPY to the top. There is some room left on the way up, but this trader will still be mostly day trading the index futures and index ETFs without overnights, with some overnight holds on some stocks and some funds. It is not the strongest situation for the bulls, and the market has been very unpredictable for a long time.

QQQ has already reached a new high. A pullback might be in order, and that would weigh heavily on SPY.

Just in my opinion.
Charts posted are not recommendations. They are just a sharing of information.
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JFR
Posts: 10127
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Re: 04/01/2023 Weekend Update

Post by JFR »

Alternative markets, daily.

2023-04-01_03-31-29.png
On the bounce, up: DBC, SPYG, SPYV, TLT, USO.

GLD up in March.

UUP down in March.

IYR small bounce up.
Charts posted are not recommendations. They are just a sharing of information.
merryme
Posts: 560
Joined: Tue Apr 01, 2014 1:41 pm

Re: 04/01/2023 Weekend Update

Post by merryme »

My bias was bearish, so I TOTALLY missed the SPY move. Rats! My analysis got LAZY. So many missed opportunities. Waiting for pullback now.
Loads of breakout trades. But even a position trade would have worked if your stop loss was below the double bottom in the range.
I look at this chart and I think how did I miss it? Bias based on opinion doesn't pay the bills. "Only price pays" as BullBear says.
Attachments
Screenshot (1412).png
Sharing research and ideas only, this is not trading advice.
“If people concentrated on the really important things in life, there’d be a shortage of fishing poles.” – Doug Larson
merryme
Posts: 560
Joined: Tue Apr 01, 2014 1:41 pm

Re: 04/01/2023 Weekend Update

Post by merryme »

Here's my unofficial, uninformed, unschooled in Elliott Wave count chart:
(Look at that PERFECT W bottom that I missed.) :shock: :roll:
Attachments
Screenshot (1415).png
Sharing research and ideas only, this is not trading advice.
“If people concentrated on the really important things in life, there’d be a shortage of fishing poles.” – Doug Larson
Trades w 2 Cats
Posts: 1695
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2020 3:48 pm

Re: 04/01/2023 Weekend Update

Post by Trades w 2 Cats »

ES 06-23 (60 Minute) 2023_04_01 (8_46_27 AM).png
Coolbizone has posted his count through Wednesday on Twitter for the SPY. I have marked up this ES to match his count. Obviously the extensions are conjecture. My opinion is that we do not get a follow through next week. The great herds of other time frame traders (the Mutual Funds etc) with professional management should be done crossing the river at quarter end. So the crocodiles waiting in the river are done eating (manipulating price to maximize their profits on options book). Of course the PASN and Euro Zone traders could follow through but by mid day New York we will see if this is a solid move or just quarter end games.
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BullBear52x
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Re: 04/01/2023 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

From "It is what it is department" Market is bullish and overbought, a daily trend following setup is entering sell the rip zone (RSI<70 = tiger the sell signal), short term momentum is very bullish.

How I play this? same playbook as usual, Buy/Sell until it failed. so far the swing buy is still good and well above 5DMA, no reversal to call out to as overbought as it is. remember the saying "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" that description fits to today's market.

My daily trend following is entering sell the rip.
1.PNG
Short term momentum is clearly bullish and very self explanatory on a breakout.
2.PNG
How overbought are we? FOMO type of overbought. :lol:
3.PNG
Intraday; Friday closed with positive price action, same thought as last week, up Friday should be follow through on Monday. If not, there's wind of change, keep buying until it fails. it is what it is.....Peace!
4.PNG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 04/01/2023 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Last week we were told that the big TBTF banks (specifically BAC) were the recipients of deposit inflows as customers moved money (specifically amounts > 250k) out of small banks into the big banks.
This week, the opposite:
"S&P Lowers Outlook [to stable from positive] On 4 Large US Banks [BAC, JPM, Chase, PNC ] After Record Deposit Outflows"

"Still think this bank-run is over?"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/large ... lows-stall

If the bank-run was over, we'd see big banks (pink) and regional (black) ETFs get up off the floor.
Screenshot 2023-04-01 122657.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 04/01/2023 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Seasonality
Screenshot 2023-04-02 085645.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
Posts: 28535
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 04/01/2023 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

REPO tactics:
if you default on your FORD car payments, your car can drive itself back to the showroom.
The patent was granted last week:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/23 ... 20remotely.
Here's the patent:
https://image-ppubs.uspto.gov/dirsearch ... 0230055958
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Trades w 2 Cats
Posts: 1695
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2020 3:48 pm

Re: 04/01/2023 Weekend Update

Post by Trades w 2 Cats »

Bob Farrell's rules
7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names.
This quarter 492 stocks in the S&P are down, while 8 account for the gain in the index.

8. Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound, and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.
^SP500 (Daily) 2023_04_02 (10_47_07 AM).png
Note she has updated her count.
9. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.
News feed suggests that most think the Fed has made the decision to drop rates and start increasing the money supply. The reality so far is the Fed is doing part of what they did during the sub prime crash. That is allowing underwater assets to stay on the books without full loss reserves, i.e., pretend and extend. They stuffed the banks with fresh cash when they made that decision during that crisis. This time they have not. Borrowing from the Fed at 4.5% does not sterilize 20 year treasuries earning 2.5%. Commercial real estate with typical maturities of 5 years are rolling over starting yet another crisis in banking when their operating margins are under pressure from that duration miss-match with all the government paper. Market is expecting yet another Fed sponsored credit expansion while the reality (so far) is a major credit contraction.
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