02/13/2016 Weekend Update

[josephli]

Rally Notes:
Pros:
- institutional selling/buying trends
- hedges rolling off
- block sales positive divergence
- SnP down-up volume positive divergence
- Interventionists jaw-boning

Cons:
- Not major accumulation
- Macro data (China/Japan)
- Bigger trend is down

Still hoping for S-T rally to ~1950 or greater.

The overnight future high is 1890, which correspond spx 1897-ish.
USDJPY rally translate well into equity gain, but USDJPY did not tank the market. looks like market still expect central banks to intervene by injecting more stimulus.

[Al_Dente]

FREE OIL
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/UA ... -Woes.html

[Trades with cats]

Idea borrowed from Pretzel Logic

Smells like a Sucker Rally

[josephli]

Idea borrowed from Pretzel Logic

Smells like a Sucker Rally

probably we will be in a choppy consolidation again. on the other hand, the crude rally looks like more like a dead cat with market rumor.

[Out of Bounds]

Still watching this: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/c ... /286407830;

[josephli]

so this is the news of friday crude rally? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... y-ikoag6a0

[BullBear52x]

since everyone is talking about crude as new holy grail to trade, well here it is:
/CL futures hourly, Two weeks a go Thursday a push up failed, see my highlighted on indicators as reference, we are at the same juncture but not failing just yet.

TTM Squeesze is still positive and well above moving average.

zoomed in on 5min. momentum is picking up but 30.2 is a resistance that need to take out if /CL bulls want another play

[BullBear52x]

/ES first sell the rip is good, going to the second one today with LH still on 5min. BB52x hot button and Heiking Ashi bar say not yet.

[fehro]

DXY daily tags the 200d again, short of possible mid channel.

[icman]

Check out the largest SPX daily gains. Many folks were comparing this correction to 2008. This is just for reference.

Largest daily point gains
Rank Date Close Net Change % Change
1 2008-10-13 1,003.35 +104.13 +11.58
2 2008-10-28 940.51 +91.59 +10.79
3 2015-08-26 1,940.51 +72.90 +3.90
4 2000-03-16 1,458.47 +66.33 +4.76
5 2001-01-03 1,347.56 +64.29 +5.01
6 2008-09-30 1,166.36 +59.94 +5.42
7 2008-11-13 911.29 +58.99 +6.92
8 2009-03-23 822.92 +54.38 +7.08
9 2008-03-18 1,330.74 +54.14 +4.24
10 2011-08-09 1,172.53 +53.07 +4.74
11 2011-08-11 1,172.64 +51.88 +4.63
12 2008-11-24 851.81 +51.78 +6.47
13 2011-11-30 1,246.96 +51.77 +4.33
14 2000-12-05 1,376.54 +51.57 +3.89
15 2008-09-18 1,206.51 +50.12 +4.33
16 1998-09-08 1,023.46 +49.57 +5.09
17 2010-05-10 1,159.73 +48.85 +4.40
18 2008-09-19 1,255.08 +48.57 +4.03
19 2014-12-18 2,061.23 +48.34 +2.40
20 (tie) 2015-09-08 1,969.41 +48.19 +2.51
20 (tie) 2001-04-05 1,151.44 +48.19 +4.37

[fehro]

USOIL 60m chart says some one is going to do something stupid in the middle east tomorrow/tonight invs H&S if it goes $33 oil. W/D/60m

ding ding >20d 30.44 - 50d @ 33.02… near invs H&S.. may pause stall around the $31 level down trend.. green dashed/cyan dash 60m

[josephli]

Check out the largest SPX daily gains. Many folks were comparing this correction to 2008. This is just for reference.

Largest daily point gains
Rank Date Close Net Change % Change
1 2008-10-13 1,003.35 +104.13 +11.58
2 2008-10-28 940.51 +91.59 +10.79
3 2015-08-26 1,940.51 +72.90 +3.90
4 2000-03-16 1,458.47 +66.33 +4.76
5 2001-01-03 1,347.56 +64.29 +5.01
6 2008-09-30 1,166.36 +59.94 +5.42
7 2008-11-13 911.29 +58.99 +6.92
8 2009-03-23 822.92 +54.38 +7.08
9 2008-03-18 1,330.74 +54.14 +4.24
10 2011-08-09 1,172.53 +53.07 +4.74
11 2011-08-11 1,172.64 +51.88 +4.63
12 2008-11-24 851.81 +51.78 +6.47
13 2011-11-30 1,246.96 +51.77 +4.33
14 2000-12-05 1,376.54 +51.57 +3.89
15 2008-09-18 1,206.51 +50.12 +4.33
16 1998-09-08 1,023.46 +49.57 +5.09
17 2010-05-10 1,159.73 +48.85 +4.40
18 2008-09-19 1,255.08 +48.57 +4.03
19 2014-12-18 2,061.23 +48.34 +2.40
20 (tie) 2015-09-08 1,969.41 +48.19 +2.51
20 (tie) 2001-04-05 1,151.44 +48.19 +4.37

I think the most relevant is the last august thrust. the 2008-2009 was a different breed. the correction so far is around 15% from all time high,. it is still around the top from long term perspective.

[Wallstreetrader]

...

[TraderJoe]

It could be more like 1992

[Wallstreetrader]

...

[daytradingES]

My summary of this is that the oil talks are pump and dump talk tactics.
Key is the phrase "we don't want to reduce supply.."
Freezing at record high Jan levels is freezing at over-supply level.
And no freeze without Iran -so why would Iran agree to freeze at levels of a month where they weren't exporting?

The only question is how high before this rolls-over?

ans: could have been there in o/n or today 31.50
----------
Empire State Mfg Survey
Released On 2/16/2016 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2016
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
General Business Conditions Index - Level -19.37 -10.00 -16.00 to -7.50 -16.64

Highlights
For the seventh straight month, the Empire State report is signaling significant contraction for the manufacturing sector. The general business conditions index for February came in below low-end expectations, at minus 16.64 vs even deeper contraction of minus 19.37 in January. New orders, at minus 11.63, are in contraction for a ninth month in a row while employment, though improving to minus 0.99 from minus 13.00, is in contraction for an eighth month in a row.



------------------
Saudis and Russia agree to oil output freeze, talks with Iran to follow
By Rania El Gamal and Tom Finn

DOHA (Reuters) - Top oil exporters Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed on Tuesday to freeze output levels but said the deal was contingent on other producers joining in - a major sticking point with Iran absent from the talks and determined to raise production.
The Saudi, Russian, Qatari and Venezuelan oil ministers announced the proposal after a previously undisclosed meeting in Doha - their highest-level discussion in months on joint action to tackle a growing oversupply of crude and help prices recover from their lowest levels in more than a decade.
The Saudi minister, Ali al-Naimi, said freezing production at January levels - near record highs - was an adequate measure and he hoped other producers would adopt the plan. Venezuela's Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino said more talks would take place with Iran and Iraq on Wednesday in Tehran.
"The reason we agreed to a potential freeze of production is simple: it is the beginning of a process which we will assess in the next few months and decide if we need other steps to stabilize and improve the market," Naimi told reporters.

"We don't want significant gyrations in prices, we don't want reduction in supply, we want to meet demand, we want a stable oil price. We have to take a step at a time," he said.

Oil prices jumped to $35.55 per barrel after the news about the secret meeting but later pared gains to trade below $34 as expectations for an immediate deal faded.

Iran, Saudi Arabia's regional arch rival, has pledged to steeply increase output in the coming months as it looks to regain market share lost after years of international sanctions, which were lifted in January following a deal with world powers over its nuclear program.
The fact output from Saudi Arabia and Russia - the world's two top producers and exporters - is near record highs also makes an agreement tricky since Iran is producing at least 1 million barrels per day below its capacity and pre-sanctions levels.
"We think other producers need to freeze straight away including Iran and Iraq. We believe this step is meant to stabilize the market," said Qatar's oil minister Mohammed al-Sada.
Iraq also has long said it expected its production to rise further this year but last month it said it was ready reduce its fast-growing output if all OPEC and non-OPEC members agreed.



IRAN KEEN TO BOOST OUTPUT

The Doha meeting came after more than 18 months of declining oil prices, knocking crude below $30 a barrel for the first time in over a decade from as high as $115 a barrel in mid-2014.
The slump was triggered by booming U.S. shale oil output and a decision by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC Gulf allies to raise production to fight for market share and drive higher-cost production out of the market.
Saudi Arabia has long insisted it would reduce supply only if other OPEC and non-OPEC members agreed, but Russia, the No.2 exporter, has said it would not do join in as its Siberian fields were different from those of OPEC.
The mood began to change in January as oil prices fell below $30 percent barrel.
While Venezuela has been the hardest-hit producer, current oil prices are a fraction of what Russia needs to balance its budget as it heads towards parliamentary elections this year. Saudi finances are also suffering badly, running a $98 billion budget deficit last year, which it seeks to trim this year.
But while talking about potential cooperation with OPEC, Russia raised its output to a new record high in January.
"Even if they do freeze production at January levels, you have still got global inventory builds which are going to weigh on prices. So whilst it's a positive step, I don't think it will have a huge impact on supply/demand balances, simply because we were oversupplied in January anyway," said Energy Aspects' analyst Dominic Haywood.

[daytradingES]

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +1.41%) are up +1.20% at a 1-week high, led by a rally in energy producers, with ConocoPhilips and Marathon Oil up at least 2% in pre-market trading as crude oil gains +0.95%. A rally in bank stocks is also pushing stock index futures higher with Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley all up over 1% in pre-market trading. European stocks are down -0.28%, led by weakness in commodity producers, as Anglo American Plc dropped over 6% after the company said it would sell more mines and raise its debt-reduction target following a fourth year of losses. European stocks were also undercut after German Feb ZEW expectations of economic growth fell to the lowest in 16 months. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.20%, Hong Kong +1.08%, China +3.29%, Taiwan +1.80%, Australia +1.37%, Singapore +1.41%, South Korea +1.37%, India -1.54%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 3-week high after Chinese data showed a record jump in new credit last month. Also, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said Monday that China will take decisive actions if needed amid recent global economic headwinds and slumping equity markets.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.65%) is up +0.69%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.03%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.48%.

Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 -0.21%) are down -4.5 ticks.

The German Feb ZEW survey expectations of economic growth fell -9.2 to 1.0, stronger than expectations of -10.2 to 0, but still the lowest in 16 months.

China Jan new yuan loans surged by a record 2.51 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +1.90 trillion yuan. Jan aggregate financing, the broadest measure of new credit, jumped a record +3.42 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +2.20 trillion yuan.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Feb Empire manufacturing index (expected +9.37 to -10.00, Jan -13.16 to -19.37), (2) Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker's speech on the 2016 economic forecast at the University of Delaware’s Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship, and (3) Feb NAHB housing market index (expected unch at 60, Jan unch at 60).

There are 14 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Agilent Technologies (consensus $0.43), Genuine Parts (1.01), Hormel Foods (0.36), Pulbic Storage (2.42), FirstEnergy (0.57).

[pezhead9000]

Mid-week update: WSJ Block Money is still positive

Last 5 days:
463M
2374M
5196M
5619M
3736M

[pezhead9000]

SnP500 Tick data w/ 9SMA - Positive Slope