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Weekend Watering Hole

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99er
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Weekend Watering Hole

Post by 99er »

Well, the paper says May 7...

Alarmed by Athens' intentions, the European Commission has called a crisis meeting in Luxembourg on Friday night. The meeting is taking place at Château de Senningen, a site used by the Luxembourg government for official meetings. In addition to Greece's possible exit from the currency union, a speedy restructuring of the country's debt also features on the agenda. One year after the Greek crisis broke out, the development represents a potentially existential turning point for the European monetary union -- regardless which variant is ultimately decided upon for dealing with Greece's massive troubles.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/eur ... 01,00.html
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

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Karl Denninger's Take

Folks, there's no way for Greece to "voluntarily" restructure that makes sense. Their only hope is to do what Iceland did, which is to tell the banksters to blow it out their asses and leave the currency union.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=185591
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

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Greek officials have tentatively raised the prospect of a debt restructuring recently, but ECB officials have been robust in their denials. Jurgen Stark, the ECB chief economist, and board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo have warned that a restructuring would have a worse systemic effect on global markets than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Even a "soft" restructuring rather than straightforward default would force holders of Greek debt to write down billions of euros, potentially imperilling Europe's banks again – particularly those in Germany.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... uring.html
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

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Greek bonds have declined since the 2010 bailout, with yields on two-year notes reaching a euro-era record of 26.27 percent on April 28. The extra yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year debt over comparable German bonds widened 4 basis points to 1,233. Greece was supposed to return to markets next year even as its debt peaks at 159 percent of gross domestic product.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-0 ... eting.html
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

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DWCF

Bad news for Bulls: prices have not only broken down through the "neckline" of the IH&S they were looking at but have now completed a back test and closed below. Next week? Good News Bears.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/dwcf.html
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Post by JJL »

99er,
Thanks for your postings - I think on Fri you mentioned Greece. Where do you see the dollar going in the near future?
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

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JJL:

The dollar has been for me the single most difficult asset to analyze; every single time that I've anticipated a pivot, something happens in the currency markets to invalidate the pattern. As someone once said, TA is not a crystal ball but rather more like a weather vane.

With that caveat, there is a chance that the dollar has bottomed. DXY on a weekly basis has a bullish Gartley Pattern and an embedded Wolfe Wave with a target of 111. Shorter-term, I expect a continuing climb up to 81.50 where there might be a correction to form the right shoulder of an IH&S. I'll probably be proven wrong of course.

DXY Daily: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/dxy_08.html
DXY Weekly: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/dxy_1652.html
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

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99er,
as always, thank you for your analysis. I agree that the dollar is difficult, and appreciate the charts.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

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JJL:

You're welcome. Here's EURUSD; we'll see in a few hours what the markets think.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/eurusd_08.html
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

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The eurozone's first ever bailout of a debt-laden member country is failing and will need to be renegotiated exactly a year after the €110bn (£96bn) rescue package was agreed for Greece.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011 ... ilout-deal
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