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04/05/2021 Live Update

Re: 04/05/2021 Live Update

Postby Ratbastrd » Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:04 pm

Al_Dente wrote:Over the weekend GS noted: "look at the tell equities [cyclicals vs defensives ] gave in advance of the bond move last year."
The symbol GS uses for their “cyclicals vs defensives” is probably proprietary, but I attempted to replicate it using the classic “Aggressive vs Defensive Ratio” which is XLY:XLP, but I substituted equal-weight RCD:XLP.
Bottom panel: Note that RCD:XLP did confirm every bond move UNTIL NOW……...…. FWIW

45rcd.png.jpg


Looks like we are at another inflection point. Curious what your read is on this given the previous post?
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Re: 04/05/2021 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:41 pm

Ratbastrd wrote: ...Looks like we are at another inflection point. Curious what your read is on this given the previous post?

45hdiverg.png.jpg

45div 2.png.jpg

At new highs I look for divergences, and there are a few.... too many actually.
Divergences can always be cured by a flood of buying.
My posture is cautious, reducing exposure at the top, expecting a pullback soon-ish.
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Re: 04/05/2021 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:47 pm


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Re: 04/05/2021 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:54 pm

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Tuesday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

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Re: 04/05/2021 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:19 pm

Al_Dente wrote:Looking back at January and February, once SPX poked above her upper bolinger (cyan), her days were numbered
ps: 80% of gaps fill
45bb.png.jpg


“SPX price closed up over the upper bolinger band... for the second day running. The rough probability of this happening is less than 5% of the time.”
[Elliott_Trader]
I can't verify that 5% number.... can you?
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Re: 04/05/2021 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:25 pm

SPY and QQQ
BEARISH THREE GAP UPS
1012three gaps up.png.jpg
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