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04/12/2021 Live Update

Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby Trades w 2 Cats » Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:21 pm

Smartest sounding guy on Twitter on this stuff Options pining the indexes) is
Cem Karsan
@jam_croissant

He started in the Chicago pits at 21. Provides 10 part tweet explanations and uses clever phrases. Worth checking out his stuff.
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:21 pm

Trades w 2 Cats wrote:As I think I understand it (and you know I will have it figured out when it no longer makes any difference) lots of call buying with small volatility (Vix) means more liquidity in the market as the dealers are buying in a concentrated area (remember their required 10 percent hedge) so we should be reading about options gamma pining. Of course opposite when it is puts as they must short the underlying. Either way low volatility means they cannot shift risk to the VIX derivatives.

Something else I don't fully understand (ask my wife what I don't know :lol: :lol: ) is the big move up in Tesla for earnings release. Since it is such a big part of the index it has to have an effect and who knows what arbitrage games the smart boys are playing with this.


thanks boss. ps: tsla will test a triple top any moment now… and we all know what triple tops mean… plus tsla doesn’t report until April 26

EARNINGS DUE:
April 14: GS, JPM, WFC,
April 15: BAC, BLK, SCHW, C, TSM, USB, UNH
April 16: MS
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby Trades w 2 Cats » Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:37 pm

Pasta Boss, thanks for correcting the wrong info I picked up on Tesla.
Primary idea is it is moving up. Media reports are that it will not be a good earnings report. Stock doe not care.

My bottom line is that electric is a "trigger" word. The way being on line was for companies several years ago. Second issue is Tesla bulls see it as a lifestyle company selling an energy independent future. Bears see it as a car company. Others see it as a company deigned to harvest government subsidies and tax credits. I am sure the truth is in there somewhere. :lol:
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:45 pm

Trades w 2 Cats wrote:Pasta Boss, thanks for correcting the wrong info I picked up on Tesla.
Primary idea is it is moving up. Media reports are that it will not be a good earnings report. Stock doe not care.

My bottom line is that electric is a "trigger" word. The way being on line was for companies several years ago. Second issue is Tesla bulls see it as a lifestyle company selling an energy independent future. Bears see it as a car company. Others see it as a company deigned to harvest government subsidies and tax credits. I am sure the truth is in there somewhere. :lol:


Boss I wasn't correcting you.
I use this page for earnings report dates, and sometimes they are wrong, so I was more like double checking. I always double check you as you are most often spot on
http://hosting.briefing.com/cschwab/Cal ... 5Weeks.htm
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby JFR » Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:50 pm

SPY. Cuppa, please.


2021-04-12_09-49-11.png
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:52 pm

FWIW, daily
SVXY (bull spy) is the first- and second-month VIX futures positions = weighted average of 1 month.
Pretty simplistic but it works as long as the SVXY bulls are correct (not shown here is last September when the SVXY folks were radically wrong ….. they kept longing as SPX kept declining).
Full Disclosure: I don’t trade SVXY nor VXX but here they are with a grain of salt

412svxy.png.jpg
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:59 pm

Al_Dente wrote:If that was a little inverse H&S, and if I drew the neckline properly...

I am as surprised as the next guy that this inverse H&S worked out on the 5min… it made a HOD… now what? ... pullback soon because RSI neg diverg?

412five.png.jpg
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby Trades w 2 Cats » Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:02 pm

Made it to everyone's target. I am going to sit on hands until we get a clear signal.
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:04 pm

I missed that one even though it was my own target :roll: :roll:
I shouldn't have been surprised as Cobra said "I think probably the low was in or very close"
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby JFR » Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:26 pm

Dow 30. More red than green, although relatively quiet. INTC taking hits.

Later ...


2021-04-12_10-26-10.png
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:39 pm

So far the find excuse to counter trend is doing well, this Monday is different, the price action is bearish atm. but to get 2x top to confirm bears need a lot more work. see 5 min bottom chart.
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:48 pm

The bearish reversal mission is on track so far.
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby Trades w 2 Cats » Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:53 pm

MES 06-21 (950 Tick) _ ES 06-21 (2000 Tick) 2021_04_12 (1_49_45 PM).png


I was thinking the regular session test of the overnight low was a green light for bulls but after the round trip to the highs I am seeing confusion.
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:54 pm

Lots of talk today about put/call : $VIX; $VVIX, If you are bearish you will be fine with this reading, both $VIX and $VVIX are ticking up today.
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:06 pm

Trades w 2 Cats wrote:
MES 06-21 (950 Tick) _ ES 06-21 (2000 Tick) 2021_04_12 (1_49_45 PM).png

I was thinking the regular session test of the overnight low was a green light for bulls but after the round trip to the highs I am seeing confusion.

I like your channels boss. Do you have to draw them by hand or they auto drawn?
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:16 pm

Breakdown is a little bit more likely now.
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby Trades w 2 Cats » Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:17 pm

Grey zones are updated every morning and are a part of the Convergent Trading package. Most major futures and three or so trading packages. The channels are all me. Have a new tool for Ninja Trader that makes it easier as the center line is automatic.
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby Trades w 2 Cats » Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:25 pm

RAMP EXPRESS !
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:25 pm

Looks like another surge up before the close. Usually it's because a bear fund is caught and forced to cover regardless the price.
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Re: 04/12/2021 Live Update

Postby trader0303 » Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:27 pm

Trades w 2 Cats wrote:RAMP EXPRESS !


I will note that the twitter guy you recommended(@jam_croissant) listed 4109 as a *** 3 star support level. It hit 4109.25 and took off from there. I didn't see 4109 as support....any idea where he got that number from? I don't see it on any timeframe.
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